The Fed knew about the housing bubble before it burst but lied and said they didn't: Bill HR 1424 to buy bad paper (eventually called TARP) was introduced in March 9, 2007, before there began to be bad commercial paper from private subprime RE loans, in August. I have published on two other ...
more The Fed knew about the housing bubble before it burst but lied and said they didn't: Bill HR 1424 to buy bad paper (eventually called TARP) was introduced in March 9, 2007, before there began to be bad commercial paper from private subprime RE loans, in August. I have published on two other prominent financial websites, Seekingalpha.com (as Gary A) and at Businessinsider.com. I muckrake the banking system and found premeditated causes for the housing bubble and subsequent meltdown. I am married with 4 grown children.
Specialties: Impacts of politics on the economy, interpreting economists, writing about the negative impact of some aspects of globalization and pros and cons of the new normal. I don't like tariff wars. Email bgamall at gmail
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Steel Stocks Shaken After US Steel Gives Concerning Guidance, Cuts Dividend
Are we winning? Steel tariffs are a drag on US competitiveness.
Why So Little Home Building?
There is a very small group of people who buy new houses. Investors and high income people. If they overbuild, demand may dry up. Builders and bankers aren't keen to sell homes to people who can only afford toxic mortgages.
The Melt-Up That Leads To The Melt?
Seth may be quite right near term. The Fed is allowing and desperately forcing massive bubbles and the extension of the business cycle because we may not be able to have ordinary recessions anymore. Derivatives bet on a stable stock market forever. So a Depression may come as a result down the road.
What To Expect In Our Next Recession/Depression?
Must read. This is brilliantly done.
The Melt-Up That Leads To The Melt?
I think the wealth divide will continue to increase. Fed policy almost guarantees it.
The Melt-Up That Leads To The Melt?
You know that disposable income is not dispersed throughout society, Seth.
Skinny Deal: Whose World View Is Currently Winning?
Update 7: Trump is putting off December tariffs but nothing will be signed til after the first of the year. Trump wants strong stocks for reelection. After that, all bets are off. He may hate China more than he loves stocks!
The Benefits Of Free Trade Are Being Canceled Out By Big Government At Home
I can't imagine a nation that shoots itself in the foot over trade more than India.
Five Things We Know From The US And China Phase-One Trade Deal
China can't possibly buy that much American stuff. Interesting article showing that China will not end tech transfers and may not have agreed to curbing any tech transfers except maybe for US banks. This deal sounds more like an announcement of a deal than a real deal!
The Melt-Up That Leads To The Melt?
This is an interesting article with interesting stats on the VIX. Certainly there are reasons stocks could go up. Don't fight the Fed and housing are bright spots. I have a suspicion however that the consumer is getting tapped out. Also the rosy phase 1 is a hope that China buys a lot of stuff it may not be able to buy. Those are my two concerns about 2020.