The Fed knew about the housing bubble before it burst but lied and said they didn't: Bill HR 1424 to buy bad paper (eventually called TARP) was introduced in March 9, 2007, before there began to be bad commercial paper from private subprime RE loans, in August. I have published on two other ...
more The Fed knew about the housing bubble before it burst but lied and said they didn't: Bill HR 1424 to buy bad paper (eventually called TARP) was introduced in March 9, 2007, before there began to be bad commercial paper from private subprime RE loans, in August. I have published on two other prominent financial websites, Seekingalpha.com (as Gary A) and at Businessinsider.com. I muckrake the banking system and found premeditated causes for the housing bubble and subsequent meltdown. I am married with 4 grown children.
Specialties: Impacts of politics on the economy, interpreting economists, writing about the negative impact of some aspects of globalization and pros and cons of the new normal. I don't like tariff wars. Email bgamall at gmail
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For Last 3 Months, Job Growth Averaged 165K, Employment Only 62K
I ran across two people in the past week who were employed at two Jobs each. If that is widespread, the payroll number, as you say, Mish, is massively bloated.
2017 Annual Forecast
This article is a helpful resource. However, you say: "#Russia will continue to play spoiler and peacemaker in the Middle East." I am not sure when a peacemaker can be labeled a spoiler. We spoiled the middle east with regime change. We are the spoiler and Russia is the peacemaker. While not being a fan of #Trump as a man, I think he is correct on this issue. Regime change has put women and children, innocent victims, in harms way throughout the middle east. I think it is bad policy, and has created refugees, and helped motivate #BREXIT, although having your own currency may be the best way to go for the UK and for any nation for that matter. The idea of regime change and the resulting refugees may fuel the end of the Eurozone itself! I don't think that was the intent of the planners of this policy.
US Services Economy "Loses Momentum" As Inflationary Pressure Surges
AS labor takes a beating, it is often reflected in a slow December. That is what we had. And a slow December translates into fewer customers and customers with less money to spend. You can automate all you want but if there are fewer and fewer left to buy your products you are on track to financial difficulty as a business. Growth may one day become a fantasy.
Macy's, Kohl's Crash After Reporting Abysmal Holiday Sales; Cut Guidance; Announce Mass Layoffs, Store Closures
Failure to get enough cash into the hands of labor is a major failure of central banks. Time for #HelicopterMoney as Kyle Bass has warned.
A New Year Brings New Recession Forecasts
Edward Lambert's effective demand measurements and diminished tax receipts are two indicators showing possible recession within 3-6 months. Trump may or may not impact recession, and it could be positive or negative impacts.
Trumponomics Won’t Trump The Bond Bust
Very clear synopsis of what Trump is facing. Housing is going to have to correct, some. And infrastructure in this nation is horrible. But even if those are corrected in the future, that will not mean sustained growth. The Fed will protect the bonds, and will not allow massive growth. Having said that, I think McConnell does not want to be on the wrong side of Trump. He does not want to make Trump crazy. If he does there will be some consequences. I don't know what those will be but there will be some.
Will Cutting Taxes Boost The Economy?
Peter, tax cuts for the top 20 percent may be fairly useless. They will just invest the money. That won't fix main street, Peter. Clearly, tax cuts at the top on top of the damage done by QE in building the wealth divide is just, well, same old stupid.
Fight For $15: Nineteen States Increase Minimum Wage January 2017
Retailers are trying automation with or without additional increases. It is up to customers to reject automation. It is crucial that this be done. It is in the best interest of customers to reject automation, because it is often times important to speak to someone who knows something about the products. If you have ever gone to a store wanting information, only to find that there are few retail employees to be found, that results in a negative store experience.
Market Manipulation Is Not Price Suppression
This article is correct, unless all markets are manipulated. Bond tantrums show that even bond markets can be manipulated, usually to try to raise yields.
JPM: "Central Banks Have Created Unprecedented Distortions In Government Bond Markets"
Except for the inflation call, I like this article. Fiscal stimulus does work better if there is big unemployment. Not sure nations didn't wait until it was too late for this cycle to implement fiscal stimulus.