Expectations for #Trump are mostly fueled by Trump himself. And yes, they are most likely way too high. Reagan and Obama came in as the economy bottomed. #Reagan did better as #Obama got sidetracked by #Obamacare and then the Republicans took the house and wouldn't let him do anything. Moral to that story is do something when you have the votes. Trump has the votes but maybe not the economy with which to achieve much more.

#Reagan was a spender. #Trump may shrink GDP with a trade war. And companies are awash with cash. Tax cuts will not spur a whole lot of investment if companies are only interested in holding cash because they fear the financial system. Trump may spur a few new factories but port business will slow as a result. The factories will pay poorly and high paying port jobs may diminish.

Lenders are drooling to lend to people who cannot pay it back, Bernard. What will be interesting is to actually see if lenders are equipped with guaranteed loans that are toxic. Maybe #Trump wants to cut other things out of the budget in order to prepare for the next housing bubble, a guaranteed one by the Federal Government.

I thought this one was interesting: Whether the border tax adjustments in the blueprint are deemed legal from a World Trade Organization perspective will depend on a key interpretation: Is the tax in question an income tax or a tax on a product? It does not seem possible to characterize the new tax as a tax on a product. It is calculated by reference to firm-based attributes under a new and simplified definition of net income, but a definition of net income nonetheless.

The fact that imports would face 20% tax on their price with no deductions while domestic producers would be able to deduct most expenses — including payroll — from the tax base could also make the import border adjustment illegal under the international rules. econofact.org/house-gop-tax-plan-aims-to-boost-competitiveness-might-also-violate-trade-law

If 7 in 10 Americans have little savings, the money is obviously not floating around in the real economy. A lot of it is in big corporations, and in big banks. It becomes a rainy day fund for big business. Without adequate demand on main street, it is likely to stay where it is now.

The rebates under Bush were way too small, almost an embarrassment considering how much was spent bailing out the banks and making sure bonuses were paid with taxpayer money. It was an insult, really.

The velocity of money is quite low, still. Everyone is saying it will rise, but so far there is no proof.

Your take on the title, Wendell, is very astute and very funny. In the second to last paragraph I meant to say notational demand rather than potential demand as notational demand would reflect what people could buy (and borrow) if they were more able to do so. There is a lot of demand just not being met due to the reality of effective demand limit.

Trump has the ability to turn a recession into a deep dark depression. That is the concern, especially with libertarians telling him depressions are no big deal.

Great advice for retirees, and interesting reading. Voight was inclusive at the inauguration concert, about all races and creeds joining in. That is encouraging. But anyone who is not fearful in some way about the new POTUS is living under a large and soundproof rock. We hope for the best, though.