Ha,entertaining article. I wonder if Rob told you why the dollar would not keep its value going forward?

Even if rates were raised to these fantasy numbers the author speaks to, it still doesn't mean the 10 year would follow. Certainly, the specter of negative rates is not good for the next downturn either. At that point, as Kyle Bass has noted, it would be time for some helicopter money to the only folks who have not been bailed out, mainstreet.

Author scenario is rosy to be sure. But it would seem that barring a meltdown in bank funding for real estate, REITs probably will do ok. The only other issue would seem to be commercial overbuilding.

That is well said, Moon. Losing clout and brand is something that most Americans do not appreciate. Perhaps the government has not adequately schooled our citizens to understand our place in the world. That place is not an excuse for abuses, nor is it an excuse for bad behavior abroad. We should appreciate that when Japanese and China's visitors go to Disney World or Las Vegas, that they like America. We should be welcoming hosts.

Extremely wealthy people are taxed too lightly in America. If citizens are not serious about paying taxes, then this makes the debt that much bigger. Also, if debt is now gold, as in treasury bonds as collateral, perhaps companies should pay a premium for that gold.

But if the lens is not able to interpret the data correctly it could be that the viewers in the White House cannot make decisions that really benefit America. For example, they don't seem to understand the role of the reserve currency. They could implement aggressive export plans that would put that role for the dollar into jeopardy.

I agree with this assessment. The Fed probably wants to give the banks a raise, hoping that one day they may want to lend based on their more secure status. I would like to see the Fed do what the Bank of England does, help small and medium businesses with credit access. That is the basis for my anger at the Fed. The real economy sans big business is treated dreadfully by the Fed.

Interesting article, Marc. I would say that as to foreign policy, Trump is not an isolationist. But as for economic policy, he could very well listen to his minions and lean toward isolationism, or a form of mercantilism that shuts out the world with high tariffs.

There is something about the Fed that makes it go in the same old directions over and over. The Bank of England is much more interested in attempting to help the real economy and the average citizens of the UK in a downturn. Since the elected representatives are beneficiaries of helping just the few, the Fed can be secure in knowing none of this effort to help the real economy will ever become law.

It should become law. If the BOE can do it why can't the Fed? Yes, the Fed has additional responsibility to provide liquidity to the world, but, killing small and medium business, by withholding credit, ultimately hurts the larger economy.

This is an incredibly interesting article. Labor share of the profits increasing would allow for more expansion. Since that likely won't happen, in a competitive world, it is hard to keep juicing the economy with debt at the end of the cycle. It seems that this article is speaking to the end of the cycle. The treatment of oil is interesting as well. From the article:

"One hypothesis regarding the rapid impact of QE was that it encouraged borrowing in US dollars, in order to purchase bonds in other currencies with higher interest rates (“carry trade”). When QE ended, the carry trade was cut off, reducing investment in countries with higher interest rates. Instead, there was more interest in investing in the US. These changes led to the US dollar rising relative to many other currencies. Since oil is priced in US dollars, these shifting relativities made oil more expensive in non-US dollar currencies. Thus, the affordability of oil declined for buyers outside the US. It was this decline in affordability outside the US that brought down oil prices. Figure 9 shows the shift in currency levels when the US discontinued QE in 2014."