We are 18 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on December 3. The alpha high (AH) is overdue and it could form at any time.

The massive distribution pattern forming since 2014 indicates the bull market likely ended in July. A weekly close well below critical congestion support in the 1,880 area on the S&P 500 index would confirm a new bear market and substantial losses.

Context plays a vital role in the development of reliable market forecasts.