Researcher of Effective Demand in Economics
Contributor's Links: Effective Demand Research

Independent researcher for a unique model of Effective Demand.


A Better Way To Calculate The Output Gap
The CBO has a wrong calculation for the output gap. I have a better one. After the 2008 crisis, the CBO showed a large negative gap. My equation did not. I waited for the CBO number to return to my number, which it did perfectly throughout 2019.
Capital Income Is Consuming Less
Capital Income has been consuming less and saving more in the last two quarters. This trend would lead to a recession.
Inflation & Changes In The Number Of Employed
Looks like some correlation between inflation & year over year number of employed. More workers, more new demand.
Currently At Inflection Point Of Unemployment
Economy is currently at limit of unemployment where either labor share rises, capacity utilization drops or unemployment starts rising. (
Approaching Effective Demand Limit Again
The economy is once again heading to the effective demand limit, which last happened in 3rd quarter 2014. Capacity utilization drops and corporate profits become a zero sum game. There are cascading effects which could bring a recession.
Capital Is Optimizing Again
In my calculations of utilization of labor and capital, there is a derivative of one equation that tells to what extent capacity and labor is being optimized.


Latest Comments
A Better Way To Calculate The Output Gap
2 years ago

I can add that the economy is made weaker with a low cost of money. It is like there is an addiction to low-cost money. Low inflation is related to this.

Lack Of Wisdom Is Prevailing
5 years ago

Is it socially efficient to raise interest rates? Interest rates aren't affecting savings accounts and consumer loans much yet. The real impact is among the rich who move large sums of money in arbitrage. So interest rates are not a major factor in being socially efficient now. The major factor will be the cut in taxes for the rich, the import taxes that will raise prices for US consumers, and the cap being put on wages as seen by the cap on Federal wages.

Inflation As Mouse Not Being Chased
6 years ago

In the second to last paragraph, I meant to say... "... if corporate taxes are slashed NEXT year."

Projecting A Fed Rate Path
6 years ago

Alan #Greenspan was masterful in his monetary policies. Yes, you could say that I am seeing the possibility of #stagflation. There is #inflation potential but not much output potential. Yet, I tend to see it not lasting very long, before a contraction takes hold. And Gary, you make a great point about the risk of killing the collateral, which is a headwind against output growth as interests rise.

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Work Experience


Atlantic International University
2012 / 2013
Economics, Independent research into model of Effective Demand.
World Medicine Institute, Honolulu, HI
2001 / 2004
Chinese Traditional Medicine, Independent research into 6-element theory to integrate all of Chinese acupuncture theory. Honorary doctorate degree was offered by Beijing Traditional Chinese University.