Ed Carlson | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Chief Market Technician
Contributor's Links: Seattle Technical Advisors
Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis (published in English, Japanese, and Chinese), An Aid to Timing, and the George Lindsay Training Course, is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) ...more

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2018 Begins During A Synchronized Global Economic Boom
Given the economic data, I am starting 2018 in a surprisingly downbeat mood. Everything I see is pointing to continued expansion in the global economy.
Lindsay: 12-Year Interval
The failure of the 15-year interval high (counted from the 9/21/01 low) to appear on time does not mean the bulls are out of the woods yet.
Stocks: Top This Week
Cycles pointing to a low near August 21 were successful. We now have cycles and Lindsay models pointing to a high this week.
The Sell-Off In Equities Should Find A Bottom
Cycles warn that the sell-off in equities during the last two weeks should find a bottom this week – temporarily.
Stocks: Intermission
A 21-week cycle low is due the week of August 21. Unless equities reach the 38.2% retracement of the 2016 rally, I doubt that will be the end of the decline. It will likely be the beginning of an intermediate bounce in a bigger seasonal decline.
Market Correction
A basic advance is the equivalent of a cyclical bull market. A basic decline is usually the equivalent of a cyclical bear market but may not always reach the arbitrary 20% sell-off used by the media to define such a decline.
Was Friday The "Big Day"?
The low on 10/15/14 counts 484 days to the low of the basic cycle on 2/11/16. 484 days later is June 9. This is not a middle section forecast. Rather, it is a low-low-high interval.
Correction Due To Get Started This Week
We’re seeing conflicting calls from the Hybrid Lindsay model and cycles. As cycles can invert we will stick with the Hybrid forecast for a top on/near June 9.A 23-day cycle high is also due on June 9.
Seasonal Low In Gold
Gold rallied $14.90/oz. Currently, gold is above the moving average keeping the long-term trend bullish.
Seasonality Is Bullish In May
Gold rallied $26.50/oz. last week closing at 1,252.70 and above the 200-dma. Gold is finding resistance from the December trendline and the detrended oscillator is overbought warning of a pullback.
Crude Correction
Crude gained $1.62/bbl. last week and closed at 47.84 but still below the 200-dma. BWI (bandwidth indicator) fell in non-confirmation of the rally.
May 8-11… High Or Low?
The patterns pointing to a high are “cleaner” than the patterns pointing to a low and a 21-day cycle points to a high today. Either way, an inflection point is due this week.
A critical factor in risk-asset pricing is inflation expectations which are directly affected by the price of commodities. Equity bulls should be concerned with the futures markets as damage to commodities is already showing in Chinese equities.
A Long-Term Look At Treasury Yields
TNX​ – the yield on the 10yr US Treasury note - gained 0.22% last week closing at 22.37 but 14-day RSI remains below its own 20-dma; bearish. The break of support at 23.35 (now resistance) has opened a door for a return to 20.00.
Lindsay: Long Term Intervals
As we are now seeing the biggest pullback in the Dow since last autumn we have to assume that the 15yr interval is exerting its influence and the decline won’t end until the 12yr interval (May-November, 2017) takes over.
Cycle: 4/3/17 High
The Hybrid Lindsay model is forecasting a high on or near today, 4/3/17. Traditional cycle analysis is also pointing to a high today and no low until the second half of the month.
1 to 16 of 45 Posts