David Merkel | TalkMarkets | Page 2
Founder, Aleph Blog
Contributor's Links: The Aleph Blog Aleph Investments, LLC
David J. Merkel, CFA — 2010-present, I run my own equity asset management shop, called Aleph Investments. I manage separately managed stock and bond accounts for upper middle class individuals and small institutions. My minimum is $100,000. From 2008-2010, I was the more

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Is Liquidity Evaporating? (What A Gas, Man…)
The Fed is tightening as they reduce QE, and begin raising the Fed Funds rate in 2022.
Annuities, Once More, With Feeling
Annuities are typically an expensive way to get returns. Typically, the all-in expenses of annuities range from 1.0-2.5%/year. As such returns are typically poor.
Against Insurance Groups
There is a saying in the industry “Life Insurance is sold, P&C Insurance is bought.” They are different markets, and there is no reason for shareholders to own a company that does both. But some companies diversify. Who does that benefit?
Pay Down Debt Or Invest?
One question that many ask is “Should I invest or pay down debt?” At present, I think that if someone has debts with interest rates higher than 3.4%/year, it makes sense to pay down debt rather than invest more.
Estimating Future Stock Returns - Quarterly Update
This is an ugly situation. Pare back risk positions. Focus on undervalued companies in industries that will not go out of fashion.
Lack Of Slack, Redux
Economics is a lot more complex than it seems for academics sitting in their chairs with their toy models.
Lack Of Slack
The economy is meant to have small amounts of stimulative government influence, not large amounts.
Lose Less
You do not hold bonds to make money – you use them to lose less money than you will by investing in broad market equities. They are dry powder for when the bear market comes.
Too Smart For His Own Good
I firmly believe that moderate risk-taking is a moral imperative if you are a businessman. You take risks, but you should never risk the firm. Risking the firm is arrogant, and dishonest to your creditors.
The Main Problem In Using Stocks For Income Investing
If you have so much assets that the yields on your dividend portfolio will never provide less income than what you need, great, go ahead and invest solely in dividend-paying common stocks.
Dear Young Old Friend
I am not faulting our leaders for their current actions to avoid a crisis, but the past actions that have created the crisis, and for which they will not admit blame. I understand deficits in wartime, but not peacetime.
Estimating Future Stock Returns, December 2020 Update
Welcome to Blunderland, boys, and girls. At the end of the fourth quarter, the S&P 500 was priced to return 1.29%/yr for the next ten years, with no adjustment for inflation.
Time For Another Convexity Crisis?
We are in the 98th percentile of valuations now, akin to the dot-com bubble. When valuations are this high, it doesn’t take much to create a panic.
There Is No “Wall Of Money”
Most of the reason why stock prices change is that people as a group change their minds as to the value of stocks.
What Game Are You Playing?
You might be a very good trader. More likely, you are not. The markets are not like Lake Wobegon where all the children are above average.
Decentralized Ponzi
There is no magic in markets — stock prices eventually revert to intrinsic value — it is only a question of how and when.
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