Christopher Vecchio Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Sr. Currency Strategist at DailyFX
Contributor's Links: DailyFX

Christopher Vecchio is a senior currency strategist at DailyFX. He has been trading equities since 2004 and forex since 2008.

Christopher has consulted multi-national firms on FX hedging and has lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives trading. He focuses on both ... more

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Weekly Fundamental British Pound Forecast: Seeking Semblance Of Stability
The IG Client Sentiment Index suggests the British Pound has a mixed bias heading through mid-April.
Central Bank Watch: BOC, RBA, And RBNZ Interest Rate Expectations Update
Now halfway through April, we’ve had the RBA and RBNZ meet, and we still have the BOC ahead next week. A trend has started to emerge, however.
Euro Forecast: Why The Strong Start To April May Continue For EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD
The first few months of 2021 proved disappointing for the Euro, but the arrival of April and 2Q’21 brings about the beginning of a seasonally strong period for the single currency.
US Stocks Hold Gains As Yellen's Global Minimum Tax Gains Support From EU, IMF
Thus far, the specter of higher US corporate tax rates has not spooked stock markets. In part, this may be due to the uncertainty of where the final level will settle.
Euro Forecast: EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD Rates Outlook
The Euro has been underperforming the rest of the majors through the first three-plus months of 2021, but it has the good fortune of running into a strong seasonal tailwind.
FX Week Ahead - RBA Rate Decision; FOMC Minutes; Mexico Inflation; China Inflation; Canada Jobs
The economic calendar has turned to a new month and quarter, but the holiday weekend has thinned out what would otherwise be a supersaturated economic calendar.
Small Caps, Copper, EM FX: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities
The Russell 2000 is up by +12.48% in 2021 while the S&P 500 is up by +6.07%. However, the Nasdaq 100 is only up by +0.70%.
EC Central Bank Watch: Fed Speeches, Interest Rate Expectations Update
After another week of Fed officials downplaying inflation fears and suggesting that rising US Treasury yields reflect economic optimism, interest rate expectations continue to stay firmly anchored.
FX Week Ahead: Biden Stimulus Speech; China Manufacturing PMI; UK GDP; US Manufacturing PMI; US NFP
Signs of inflation heating up may be ignored (German and Euro area inflation rates), while evidence that major economies have struggled may be overlooked (UK GDP).
Weekly Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: RBA On Defense; Data Trends Weakening; PMIs Ahead
With more volatility coming into play for both global bond yields and equity markets, the Australian Dollar may have a choppy end of the month – more or less in line with its seasonal tendency.
FX Week Ahead: US Retail Sales; Canada Inflation; BOE & Fed Rate Decisions; Australia Jobs
Much like the BOC and ECB, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BOE) are likely to talk their way around the recent rise in global bond yields, shrugging them off as evidence of improving optimism.
Central Bank Watch: Fed Speeches, Interest Rate Expectations
The Fed is now in its pre-meeting communications blackout period. The FOMC next meets on Wednesday, March 17.
Mexican Peso Forecast At Inflection Point - Levels For MXN/JPY, USD/MXN
Rising US Treasury yields have proved a nuisance to EM FX rates, with USD/MXN breaking through its pandemic downtrend and returning to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its 2020 low/high range.
FX Week Ahead: US Inflation; BOC & ECB Rate Decisions; UK GDP; Canada Jobs
Bond markets will be on edge all week, with several measures of inflation due from around the globe (Mexico, China, US, Australia, Brazil, Germany, and India).
FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: US Inflation; BOC & ECB Rate Decisions; UK GDP; Canada Jobs
Changes in retail trader positioning suggest that most USD-pairs could break in favor of more greenback strength.
Central Bank Watch: BOC, RBA, & RBNZ Interest Rate Expectations Update
Rising bond yields and appreciating currencies are front-and-center for the commodity currency central banks.
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