Christophe Barraud | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Chief Economist and Strategist
Contributor's Links: Christophe-Barraud.com
After a Master II in Finance, I wrote a thesis in Financial Economics at Paris-Dauphine University (France). Although I enjoyed my time in the academic sphere, the overly theoretical framework and the lack of daily risk-taking led me to pursue a career as a market economist. Being also passionate ...more

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US Mortgage Purchase Applications Fell 25.4% Over The Past Seventeen Weeks, Hitting Lowest Since 1995
The surge in mortgage rates has tempered the excitement of American homebuyers, evident in the steep drop in mortgage purchase applications over the last seventeen weeks.
German Housing Sector Grapples With Unprecedented Crisis
German housing sector finds itself in the throes of an unprecedented crisis as construction projects face record cancellations, sending shockwaves through the industry.
Eurozone Monetary Developments In August Raise Fears Of A Recession
Latest Eurozone monetary developments showed that lending to businesses and households weakened again in August.
Existing Home Sales On Track To Reach A 13-Year Low
After rebounding earlier this year, existing home sales fell for a second straight month in July. The correction is likely to continue in the coming months as existing home inventory remains depressed and demand is weakening.
U.S. Mortgage Purchase Applications Fell 12.2% Over The Past 7 Weeks
The decrease in purchase activity can be attributed to various factors, notably including limited housing inventory and the soaring mortgage rates.
Eurozone Q2 GDP To Surprise Upward But Challenges Persist
On Monday at 10.00 UK Time, the European statistics office will release the first estimate of Eurozone Q2 GDP. Bloomberg consensus expects a rise of 0.2% QoQ (v unchanged prior) but regional surveys suggest an upward surprise is likely.
Latest Monetary Developments In The Eurozone Point To A Gloomy Outlook
In a context where the ECB looks on track to tighten further its monetary policy, the economy is likely to face a longer recession than expected.
U.S. New Home Sales Could Beat Expectations
On Tuesday, the Census will release the US New Home Sales (NHS) for May. Several proxies suggest that NHS will surprise upward, as buyers faced a lack of existing homes for sale.
US CPI Still On Track To Be Around 3% YoY In June
After reaching a peak of 9.1% YoY in June 2022, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed over the past few months, falling below 5% YoY in April.
Why Is U.S. CPI YoY Expected To Slow Sharply In 1H 2023?
Market participants already expect CPI YoY to slow markedly by June 2023 with swaps pointing to a level below 3% (and even closer to 2%).
U.S. CPI’s Shelter Inflation YoY Should Reach A Top Soon
Given that private data suggest that market rents’ growth (YoY) already reached a top, CPI’s Shelter Inflation YoY should follow soon, particularly in a context where housing prices started retracing for the first time since 2012.
Latest Indicators Confirm That U.S. Inflation Peak YoY Is Behind Us
Despite several Fed members, such as Bullard, aren’t ready to say inflation reached the top, the latest indicators confirm my view that CPI YoY peaked in June at 9.1%.
Preview: U.S. Existing Home Sales For July Will Decline For A Sixth Straight Month
Tomorrow, the National Association of Realtors will release the U.S. Existing Home Sales for July. My proxies suggest that EHS will contract for a sixth straight month, reflecting weaker demand.
Existing Home Sales For January Will Beat Estimates
On Friday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will release the U.S. Existing Home Sales (EHS) for January. According to the Bloomberg consensus, EHS should decrease by 1.0% MoM to 6.10 million SAAR (v 6.18 million prior).
Why Is The Federal Reserve Under Pressure To Act Quickly And Strongly Against Inflation?
The Federal Reserve is on track to tighten its monetary policy soon in a context where inflation kept surprising upward both economists and the White House.
Fed Quantitative Tightening Could Become A Real Option In 2022
The Federal Reserve is not only on track to raise rates faster than expected but can also implement quantitative tightening as soon as 2022.
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