The Baby Boomer generation has been the largest generation for some years now, since the birth rate soared after WW-II. (The chart at the top of page 4 shows the birth rates by generation). As it has aged the Baby Boomers have dominated the economic and political landscape. But now Baby Boomers are near retirement or retiring (the median Baby Boomer age is 63 in 2018), and Baby Boomers’ own children are expected to out-number them in 2019. Dubbed the Millennials, this generation of Baby Boomer progeny will prove to be quite different from the Baby Boomers. Generational differences run deep throughout history, in fact, and because Millennials will also expand by way of immigration, this generation will be more race/ethnically diverse than any previous generation.
This article will focus on the economic and political impact of this new generation. Data shows that Millennials will reach milestones, including marriage and home buying, later than Baby Boomers did.
Before continuing however, we should define the different generations (see table herewith for further delineation).
Generational Identifications
Millennials
With immigration adding more numbers to this group than any other, the Millennial population is projected to peak in 2036 at 76.2 million. Thereafter, the oldest Millennial will be at least 56 years of age and mortality is projected to outweigh net immigration. By 2050 there will be a projected 74.3 million Millennials.
Generation X
For a few more years, Gen Xers are projected to remain the “middle child” of generations – caught between two larger generations, the Millennials and the Boomers. Gen Xers were born during a period when Americans were having fewer children than in later decades. When Gen Xers were born, births averaged around 3.4 million per year, compared with the 3.9 million annual rate from 1981 to 1996 when the Millennials were born ... the Gen X population is projected to grow for a couple more years. Gen Xers are projected to outnumber Boomers in 2028, when there will be 64.6 million Gen Xers and 63.7 million Boomers. The Census Bureau projects that the Gen X population will peak at 65.8 million in 2018.
Baby Boomers
Baby Boomers have always had an outsize presence compared with other generations. They peaked at 78.8 million in 1999 and have remained the largest living adult generation.
There were an estimated 74.1 million Boomers in 2016. By midcentury, the Boomer population is projected to dwindle to 16.6 million (Pewresearch.org).
Political Impact of Millennials Rising
The impact of Millennials is being felt in the political arena by the number of eligible voters and by the number of Millennials running for office.
Politico.com reports: “Millennials take on Trump in the midterms ... Younger candidates are flooding Democratic congressional primaries - and winning”. Politico.com goes on to report that: “Currently, the average age of a member of the 115th Congress – nearly 58 years old in the House and nearly 62 years old in the Senate – is among the oldest of any Congress in recent history, according to a report by the Congressional Research Service. The youngest member of Congress, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), will turn 34 in July. Stefanik was first elected at age 30. No woman has ever been elected to Congress in her 20s, but two 20-somethings Democrats ... are serious contenders running in competitive districts”, (politico.com)
Though younger voters outnumber the older generations, Millennials are less likely to vote than the older generations. The chart on the bottom of page 5 shows that “as of April 2018, 59% of adults who are eligible to vote are Gen Xers, Millennials or “post-Millennials.” In the 2014 midterm election, which had a historically low turnout, these younger generations accounted for 53% of eligible voters but cast just 36 million votes – 21 million fewer than the Boomer, Silent and Greatest generations, who are ages 54 and older in 2018 ... While the growth in the number of Millennials who are eligible to vote underscores the potential electoral clout of today’s young adults, Millennials remain far from the largest generational bloc of actual voters. It is one thing to be eligible to vote and another thing to actually cast a ballot ... Millennials have punched below their electoral weight in recent presidential elections. (For a host of reasons, young adults are less likely to vote than their older counterparts)”, (Pewresearch.org).
Despite the lower turnout, however, the Millennial impact on both candidates and turnout should be significant in the upcoming mid-term elections.
Economic Impact of Millennials
“To date, untold billions have surely been spent in the United States in an attempt to understand this “new breed” of consumer. Millennials are the biggest demographic segment ... of the largest economy on the planet, and so their preferences will drive production and marketing strategies for the next 20 years. But they are a fickle bunch. On the one hand, they scoff at traditional rites of passage such as marriage and homeownership. But, on the other hand, they are the first “digitally native” generation, and their aggregate annual income is expected to surpass 4 trillion dollars by 2030”, (www.brookings.edu).
A higher percentage of Millennials are college graduates. They prefer ride-shares and Uber, as many have chosen to live in condos closer to downtown centers as opposed to suburbia. They own fewer cars. Millennials are more likely to spend money on “comforts and conveniences like taxis, pricey coffee and dining out” (www.cnbc.com). And “experiences”, vacations/travel and such, are higher on the priority list than with previous generations. Millennials are also more likely to seek financial advice than previous generations (www.cnbc.com).
Millennial Milestones
The mid-point Millennial age in 2018 is 29 (using Pew Research Center’s classification), and it is apparent that Millennials are reaching various life milestones somewhat later than Baby Boomers did. However, Millennials may not be as unambitious as some believe. Their longer lifespans, greater diversity, and easy adaptation to new technologies may translate into more schooling, later marriages, and a preference for urban life; indeed Millennials may in fact be responding rationally to a set of circumstances unique to the Millennial generation.
Because life expectancy of Millennials is longer than of previous generations, we constructed a mathematical conversion equation to help compare the Millennial experience with the Boomer experience.
The Millennial to Baby Boomer milestone conversion equation is the following:
M = (BB+7) * 1.15 – 4.5
where M stands for Millennials and BB for Baby Boomers.
The average Baby Boomer was first married at age 22 (sometime in the late 1970s). Using the equation, BB equals 22 and M = (22+7) * 1.15 – 4.5, or 29. This, 29, is the observed average age of first marriage for Millennials. (The inherent supposition in the equation is that had Baby Boomers the many choices in schooling, for example, and the dating apps on an iPhone, then Baby Boomers might well have married later too!)
Baby Boomer life expectancy is currently 82 years on average. The equation suggests, M = (82+7) * 1.15 – 4.5, that the Millennial life expectancy is 98 years!
The Milestone Timeline table below was derived using the above equivalency equation.
Understanding preference and lifestyle variations between Millennials, Baby Boomers, and Generation Xers can help readers take advantage of thematic investing opportunities in coming years. We propose that Baby Boomers and Millennials are not very different at all once specific accidents of history are accounted for and then set aside.
Investment Conclusions
The largest single asset most investors own is their home. The second largest asset most investors own is their retirement investment account. Each of these two assets are affected by supply and demand factors which are underlaid by demographics. The conversion timeline table is a forward-looking tool that readers can apply to decipher the Millennial generations demand, a group whose demand trends otherwise might look atypical. Suburban household formation by Millennials may be on the horizon and investment demand for securities by the Millennials will occur predictably, but later in life than for Baby Boomers.
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