Blair Jensen Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
President of Downside Hedge
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Blair Jensen is President of Downside Hedge which provides market commentary and hedging strategies for individual investors. His development of a stock market sentiment indicator based on the Twitter stream is changing the way investors and traders ... more

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Market Risk Cleared - Saturday, Feb. 23
Over the past week, my market risk indicator finally cleared. In addition, my core market health indicators have strengthened.
Market About To Show Its Hand
The market is at an inflection point and is about to show its hand. Watch the 20 and 50 day simple moving averages on SPX for a downside break. Watch 25,000 on DJIA and 10,100 on DJTA for an upside break.
Dow Theory Bear Market - Friday, Dec. 21
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average have broken their last secondary lows.
Dow Theory Secondary Lows Forming
On Wednesday, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) closed low enough that they are in the process of forming new secondary lows.
Market Risk: Warning
The market Indicator is signaling risk today. The Long/Cash portfolio goes 100% to cash.
Market Strength Whipsaw
Over the past week my core measures of market strength whipsawed. The category went positive last week, then went back to negative yesterday. Another thing of note is that my core measures of stock market risk fell substantially.
Market Strength Goes Positive
My core measures of market strength have gone positive.
Market Quality Goes Positive Again
My core measures of market quality have gone positive again. My measures of market trend and strength are lagging, suggesting a somewhat choppy market ahead.
Market Health Indicators: Consolidation Likely
Market health indicators are signaling that some consolidation is likely. All of the core categories are negative with the exception of risk.
Market Quality Recovers
Over the past week, my measures of market quality recovered and are now back above zero.
Market Quality Goes Positive
Over the past week my measures of market quality have gone positive.
Strengthening Indicators
All of my market health indicators are strengthening. Most notably my measures of risk and strength have moved from negative to positive.
Risk Warning Cleared
On Friday my market risk indicator cleared its warning. The core market health indicators are usually much slower to clear so they’re still mostly negative.
Market Risk Warning Clears
Most of my core market health indicators have strengthened. However, my core measures of risk still haven’t recovered.
Warning Still In Effect
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is consolidating along its 50 day moving average. A significant move above it would almost certainly clear the market risk warning.
Market Risk Warning - Friday, Feb. 9
Market risk warnings come in two varieties. Ones that last for only a week or two (a false signal) and ones that last for several months (a significant correction or bear market).
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