Bill Smead Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
CEO, Smead Capital Management
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William is the founder of Smead Capital Management, where he oversees all activities of the firm. As Chief Investment Officer, he is the final decision-maker for all investment and portfolio decisions as well as reviewing the implementation of those decisions in the firm’s separate ... more

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Simon Says
The stock market has its own game of “Simon says” and that is in the mall property world.
Tesla And GameStop: Pass The Dutchie?
GameStop has a long history of profitability, but not a bright future. Tesla had an accounting profit recently, primarily because of government subsidies.
The January Effect
There have been a small number of consistent alpha-creating axioms in the U.S. stock market over time.
EC From The Impatient To The Patient
As we enter 2021, it appears that Buffett had things upside down in 2020. The things which had gone up the most by the end of 2019, went up the most in 2020.
Famed Climatologist Charlie Munger
The technology which solved that great environmental problem in the early 1900s is the one that created today’s environmental problem, the internal combustion engine.
EC Net Present Value Bargains
Today’s home building per capita number only brings us up to the bottom of the chart prior to 2006, a function of the home building depression of 2007-2017.
People Need People
In all this tech euphoria and COVID-19 quarantining, investors are missing a key fact.
One Helluva Party
This entire bull market has been marked by retail investors, noted by the AAII survey, not being bullish.
WFH Is A WKF
The risks go up in a stock market, or in an individual stock, when a “well-known fact” (WKF) was acted on in the extreme. It is a leading cause of stock market failure for professional and individual investors alike.
Cherry Picking Is Tempting
When you run an equity portfolio which is concentrated in 25-30 common stock selections, there are usually three stocks which stick out as particularly attractive at any given time. It is tempting to cherry pick and buy those outside of our strategy.
Humility Produces Alpha
eBay peaked in March of 2000 at roughly $307.77, before adjusting to today via stock splits, and earned $0.09 per share that year. They are one of the biggest success stories of the dotcom bubble behind Amazon.
The Inflation Cocktail Is Being Mixed
The U.S. Government is now fighting the war against COVID-19 and frighteningly high unemployment levels. We have thrown $4 trillion at this war already and we aren’t done yet.
Economic Normality: When? Sooner? Never?
In the time since COVID-19 hit the economy and stock market, there have been three phases.
True Stories Of Financial Euphoria Circa 1998-1999
When you are in a financial euphoria episode, like the one we are in currently, it is hard to visualize the impact it has when it breaks. Historically, it is the leading cause of stock market failure.
The Boy Who Cried Wolf
We are not in this business to be popular; we are here to seek to outperform our benchmarks and create wealth over time. One important way you do that is to avoid financially euphoric common stocks and be intellectually honest with investors.
Sins Of Omission
With markets extremely difficult and volatile as we work through COVID-19, we thought it would be good to review important parts of our investment discipline.
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