Axel Merk | TalkMarkets | Page 1
President & CIO at Merk Investments
Axel Merk is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments, manager of the Merk Funds. Follow @AxelMerk on Twitter. Subscribe to Merk Insights for free at more

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Fixing Banks; It’s Not That Complicated
Policymakers, for whatever reason, are not talking about the lack of mark-to-market accounting with a requirement to account for unrealized losses.
Higher For Longer - Implications
To fight inflation, the Fed is committed to “higher for longer”. We may agree or disagree with the Fed’s approach, but we may be well served to take the Fed literally.
Equity Market Chart Book
The S&P 500 is still vulnerable to an earnings contraction (relative to expectations). Sell-side projections suggest 2023 S&P earnings will be 4% higher than last year.
Business Cycle Chart Book
While many leading indicators have been suggesting elevated recession risk for several months, coincident data remains reasonably strong.
Equity Market Chart Book - Thursday, Dec. 22
While there are cross-currents at work, the path of least resistance for the market is likely still lower.
Business Cycle Chart Book - Wednesday, Dec. 7
Incoming data continues to be consistent with a high recession risk for 2023. The US Manufacturing PMI has fallen below 50, the dividing line between expansion and contraction, for the first time since March 2020.
Equity Market Chart Book - Wednesday, Nov. 23
Based on the economic outlook and market history, I think the market probably makes new lows before making new all-time highs.
Business Cycle Chart Book - Thursday, Nov. 10
Incoming data suggests that the recession risk for 2023 continues to increase and is generally at highly elevated levels.
Equity Market Chart Book - Wednesday, Oct. 26
High and rising interest rates should continue to pressure valuation multiples in the equity market.
Business Cycle Chart Book - Wednesday, Oct. 12
Data over the past month was mixed but on balance increasingly suggests recession risk over the coming year.
TIPS - A Misunderstood Inflation Hedge
TIPS have historically been a good inflation hedge over a medium to longer-term investment horizon.
Equity Market Chart Book - Wednesday, Sept. 21
With tightening monetary policy, an ongoing global growth slowdown, and relatively elevated valuations, the path of least resistance continues to be lower for the equity market.
Business Cycle Chart Book - Thursday, Sept. 15
Longer leading indicators continue to suggest recession risk is elevated over the next year. Nevertheless, a soft landing remains possible.
Equity Market Chart Book - Wednesday, Aug. 31
Coincident economic indicators continue to confirm that the US economy is not (yet) in recession, but leading economic indicators increasingly suggest recession risk ahead.
Business Cycle Chart Book - Thursday, Aug. 11
Incoming data over the past month suggests recession probability over the next 12 months is likely now above 50%.
Equity Market Chart Book - Wednesday, July 27
With some key PMIs already falling below 50, the window of opportunity for a constructive Fed pivot is narrowing.
1 to 16 of 55 Posts