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Our namesake is the Alhambra, a fortress in southern Spain dating back to 889. For more than a thousand years, people of different backgrounds found refuge behind her venerable walls. Today, the Alhambra remains as strong as ever, an enduring symbol of wealth, prosperity, and security. Like ...more

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Macro: Challenger Job Cuts — Improvement Throughout The Year
We had a bad 1st quarter relative to historic averages for job cuts. But the situation has gotten better throughout the year. In the 3rd quarter of 2023 less people are losing their job relative to the average 3rd quarter going back to 1989.
Macro: Oct S&P Final And ISM PMI
New orders up, backlogs down, employment down, inflation up. Index at 50, kiss your mother. As with the regional surveys, the takeaway here as the Chief Economist of S&P Global says, “conditions stabilize”
Macro: GDPNow — A Market Mover
The most likely candidate for what moved markets today is the GDPNow update. The forecast for growth in Q4 dropped from an initial forecast of 2.3% to 1.2%. Of note, this is also a much slower growth than we saw in Q3.
Macro: Construction Spending — It’s All About Infrastructure And Reshoring
Total construction spending is growing at 8.7% and that is an increase from 7.6% growth last month.
Macro: Chicago Business Barometer
Similar to other regional surveys, down .1 from September and near the average for the year. Soft conditions. We need directional confirmation.
Macro: House Prices — All-Time Highs
Housing prices were coming down this time last year. But, despite mortgage rates at their highest levels since 2000, housing prices are again appreciating and reached an all-time high in August.
Don’t Miss These Year-End Financial Moves To Make Right Now
It seems like we just rang in the new year and here we are almost at the end of 2023. So, with the time left before the end of the year, there are some financial matters you need to attend
Macro: Texas Manufacturing
After a big optimistic jump in new orders in September there is a slight downtick in both survey categories. So, a few more respondents reported decreasing activity. Activity isn’t increasing, but the small change doesn’t indicate deterioration
Macro: Personal Income And Outlays
The growth rate of income and consumption are at healthy levels. But there are some aspects of this growth that I’d like to point out. Though we have healthy rates of growth, the concern is that both incomes and consumption are slowing.
Macro: Consumer Sentiment — K-Shaped
Here’s a good visual of the K-shaped recovery from the pandemic. This is the top 1/3 in income versus the bottom 1/3 (terciles). The K would likely get even more distinct if we looked at quartiles, quintiles, and deciles.
Macro: Auto Sales — It’s All About Inventory Replenishment
Sales firmed to an annual rate 16.23 million units in September after dropping below 16 million in August. This is about 7% higher than the historic average.
Macro: Inflation - High Frequencies And Crude Keep Powell Up At Night
If we look at inflation on a year-over-year basis, the data series is smooth and it is coming down.
Macro: GDP Q3
The YoY annual rate of change or Q32023/Q32022 is up 2.93% which is better growth for 3 quarters in a row after we got slower annualized growth every quarter in 2022.
Macro: Inflation Measures PCE And GDP Deflator
Inflation measures currently surpassing the 2% target: GDP price deflator at 3.24%, PCE Price Index YoY at 3.43%, and Core PCE at 3.9%. Notably, all have been showing a declining trend.
Macro: Initial Unemployment Claims
Continuing claims have risen some, perhaps an indication that jobs are a bit harder to find. But there’s no doubt that companies are mainly trying to hold on to their workers.
Macro: Durable Goods New Orders
New orders for Durable Goods looks good on the surface, up 4.7% just from last month and 7.8% from a year ago. The headline number showed an increase of $13.215B.
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