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Pater Tenebrarum is an independent analyst and economist/social theorist. He has been involved with financial markets in various capacities for 31 years and currently writes economic and market analyses for independent research organizations and a European hedge fund consultancy as well as being ... more

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EC US Money Supply – The Pandemic Moonshot
It started out with Jay Powell planting a happy little money tree in 2019 to keep the repo market from suffering a terminal seizure. This essentially led to a restoration of the status quo ante “QT”.
In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning Of A Golden Decade
As this year’s In Gold We Trust report is published, gold has finally clearly re-entered a bull market.
Investing In The Post-Corona World
Central bankers appear to be quite convinced that they will be able to keep a lid on any untoward developments.
Gold Stocks – A Show Of Strength
Since the September 2018 low, the gold sector is outperforming the broad market. As the HUI-SPX ratio shows, its outperformance has recently accelerated.
EC Credit Markets – The Waiting Game
After the first inter-meeting rate cut in early March, we opined that further rate cuts were a near certainty and that “not-QE” would swiftly morph into “QE, next iteration”.
The Corona Virus Epidemic – Going Global
While it appears that the draconian measures taken by China’s government have managed to slow the spread of the infection in the country substantially, the outbreak is accelerating everywhere else.
EC US Stock Market – Sentiment And Positioning
With the central bank printathon currently in full swing again, we prefer to remain agnostic with respect to the question of how much further the bubble can ultimately expand.
Opportunities In The Gold Exploration Sector
ATAC's stock has been in a downtrend for several years. It traded above 70 cents both in 2016 and 2017. If one goes even further back, it traded actually as high as $4.40 in late 2011 when gold peaked.
The Credit Market Powder Keg
By all accounts, credit markets remain on fire. 2019 is already a record year for corporate bond issuance, beating the previous record set in 2017 by a sizable margin.
Repo Market, QE4 (aka Not QE), The Fed And Gold
In the long term, gold is becoming ever more valuable relative to other commodities – the same can evidently not be said of the dollar.
US Money Supply Growth – Bouncing From A 12-Year Low
In August 2019 year-on-year growth of the broad true US money supply (TMS-2) fell to a fresh 12-year low of 1.87%. The 12-month moving average of the growth rate hit a new low for the move as well.
EC Repo Quake – A Primer
One thing the repo quake did reveal is that liquidity is much tighter than was previously assumed. We believe this means that the Fed is shortly going to resume “QE” in some shape or form.
The Weird Obsessions Of Central Bankers, Part 2
Interest rate manipulation and money printing distort relative prices in the economy, which throws economic calculation into disarray.
The Weird Obsessions Of Central Bankers
None of the “non-standard” monetary policies implemented by the ECB and other central banks have even met their stated goal of boosting price inflation, not to mention economic growth.
Rising Stock Market Volatility – Another Warning Sign
Sometimes an increase in market volatility does not mean much – but when it happens at a time when the market is trading at extremely high valuations, it can be a major warning sign.
Bitcoin – From Greed To Fear
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have declined quite sharply in recent days.
1 to 16 of 754 Posts
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