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Pater Tenebrarum is an independent analyst and economist/social theorist. He has been involved with financial markets in various capacities for 31 years and currently writes economic and market analyses for independent research organizations and a European hedge fund consultancy as well as being ... more

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US Money Supply Growth – Bouncing From A 12-Year Low
In August 2019 year-on-year growth of the broad true US money supply (TMS-2) fell to a fresh 12-year low of 1.87%. The 12-month moving average of the growth rate hit a new low for the move as well.
EC Repo Quake – A Primer
One thing the repo quake did reveal is that liquidity is much tighter than was previously assumed. We believe this means that the Fed is shortly going to resume “QE” in some shape or form.
The Weird Obsessions Of Central Bankers, Part 2
Interest rate manipulation and money printing distort relative prices in the economy, which throws economic calculation into disarray.
The Weird Obsessions Of Central Bankers
None of the “non-standard” monetary policies implemented by the ECB and other central banks have even met their stated goal of boosting price inflation, not to mention economic growth.
Rising Stock Market Volatility – Another Warning Sign
Sometimes an increase in market volatility does not mean much – but when it happens at a time when the market is trading at extremely high valuations, it can be a major warning sign.
Bitcoin – From Greed To Fear
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have declined quite sharply in recent days.
Interest Rate Watch And Bond Market Curiosities
In view of the sharp increase in stock market volatility, yields on government debt have continued to decline in a hurry.
The Calm Before The Storm
The divergences between the different indexes at the very least represent a heads-up that another correction is likely to begin fairly soon.
Paul Tudor Jones Likes Gold
According to last week’s CoT report, the net commercial hedger short position has grown to around 172,000 contracts. In a bull market, this position is likely to become much larger before it poses a problem.
A Surprise Move In Gold
Over the past week, gold and gold stocks have been on a tear. It is probably fair to say that most market participants were surprised by this development.
US Money Supply Growth And The Production Structure – Signs Of An Aging Boom
It has taken quite a long time already, but it appears as though slowing money supply growth is finally beginning to affect the real economy.
In Gold We Trust 2019
Trust in once well-respected institutions is increasingly eroding.
EC The Liquidity Drought Gets Worse
The continuing slowdown in money supply growth represents a palpable threat to the bubble in asset prices.
Long Term Stock Market Sentiment Remains As Lopsided As Ever
A brief update on indicators that are of medium to long-term relevance to prospective stock market returns.
A Trip Down Memory Lane – 1928-1929 Vs. 2018-2019
It has become abundantly clear by now that the late 2018 swoon was not yet the beginning of the end of the stock market bubble – at least not right away.
The Gold Debate – Where Do Things Stand In The Gold Market?
Despite the fact that gold fundamentals are still not unequivocally bullish, there are signs that investors are increasingly receptive to the idea of buying some gold for insurance purposes.
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