Is more 'good news' on its way? According to BofA, who have been mysteriously all-knowing for months, this morning's US retail sales print will be better than expected (positive)...

Ahead of retail sales: BofA real-time debit and credit card data indicates a big beat to consensus, especially on headline pic.twitter.com/4iFSdIj4Cz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 15, 2023

However, Goldman warned last month that retail sales could stumble hard because "the largest effects of the hit from the resumption of student loan payments will come in October."

After last month's big upside surprise, the consensus was for a 0.3% drop MoM in retail sales but the actual print came in better than expected, declining just 0.1% MoM (the first decline in 7 months)...

Source: Bloomberg

Both headline and core retail sales YoY growth slowed in October...

Source: Bloomberg

Retail sales ‘control group’ (which excludes food services, automobile dealers, building materials and gasoline stations) and is used for GDP calculations, rose 0.2% MoM in Oct.

Furniture, Motor Vehicles, and Miscellaneous Stores saw the biggest MoM declines...

Miscellaneous Store Retailers continues to swing around violently..

As a reminder, last months big jump was 'seasonally adjusted'. Un-adjusted sales dropped over 5% MoM. In October, sales NSA rose 2.3% MoM...

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly the 'great news' everyone was expecting but still a 'beat'.

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