WTI Crude Oil: Weekly Forecast For Sept. 25-29

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The days ahead for WTI crude oil promise to be rather dynamic, as the commodity has remained within sight of highs and US Gross Domestic Product data is to be delivered later this week.

WTI crude oil went into the weekend slightly below the $90.00 mark, but the price of the commodity has remained within sight of the highs achieved on Sept. 19, which challenged the $92.25 realm.

While crude oil did traverse below its highs as it went into the weekend, the price remained durable as short-term support near the $89.00 level seemed to spark renewed buying when it was briefly penetrated a few hours before the market closed. Last week saw the commodity briefly go below the $89.00 level on Wednesday, and the lowest mark for the week occurred on Thursday, as crude oil traded near the $88.13 ratio for a short time.


WTI Crude Oil Price Remains Stubborn and High

Since trading near lows of around $66.00 from March until late June of this year, with higher price action also being seen during that time period, producing a high of $84.00 in the middle of April, crude oil seemed to languish in price until the end of the first week in July.

Interestingly, this is around the same time period the US dollar was exhibiting some weakness in the Forex market. If you are looking for correlations with the US dollar and WTI crude oil, a glance at trading since the middle of July shows more of these ‘coincidences.’

Certainly, oil production cuts by Saudi Arabia have helped stabilize the price of crude oil. An interesting factor is the ability of the US economy to continue to produce growth, as many analysts were fairly certain a recession would hit.

Demand for WTI crude oil has not diminished in the US, and this is helping generate solid price action. The ability of WTI crude oil to remain near the $90.00 level the past week is particularly intriguing because a sustained selloff has not yet occurred.


Broad Market Nervousness, but No Decline in WTI Crude Oil Value Yet

The global financial markets have remained fragile, and this can be seen via the result of equity indices. However, many of these declines in the US equity market are due to financial institutions looking for guaranteed results from US Treasuries. A downturn in the US economy, which many expected to happen, has not been demonstrated yet.

This Thursday’s GDP numbers will give an opportunity for speculators to solidify their outlooks regarding the prospects for US growth. If US data points to a strong economy, this will quickly be interpreted as a sign that demand for WTI crude oil is going to remain steady, and it could spark more buying of the commodity.


WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook

The speculative price range for WTI crude oil is $87.90 to $93.20.

The opening for WTI crude oil should be watched on Monday. If the price opens in a steady fashion and remains fixated near the $90.00 level, it will show underlying buying for the commodity remains strong. A move that exceeds the $90.00 mark and sustains value above the $91.00 level early this week could be speculative in nature, and it could mean that major players in the energy sector are bracing for better-than-anticipated GDP results. A sustained move above the $92.00 level this week is likely to spark fresh highs that could surpass last week’s results.

Speculators who believe WTI is overbought and want to pursue downward price action should consider this week's price action carefully. Due to the lack of a sustained move downwards, the strong uptrend seen since early July will likely not vanish this week.

Downside wagers on WTI should look for quick-hitting results. Support near the $89.00 level would have to be sustained for more than a day to spark bigger interest in the potential of WTI crude oil to suddenly become bearish and test the $88.00 to $87.00 range.

Crude Oil Forecast

(Click on image to enlarge) 


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