E Waiting On Silver

Expectations still abound for the long-awaited, vertical leap in silver prices.  We are told it is inevitable; and that it is supported by solid fundamentals. Those fundamentals include supply deficits, a return to the 16 to 1 gold-silver ratio, increasing monetary demand for silver, etc.

However, an examination of those fundamentals reveals a different picture. That picture is inconsistent with the call for higher silver prices.

Silver, Bars, 5000 Grams, Real Value

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Silver Supply & Demand, Ratios

The supply deficits (gaps in consumption overproduction) have been talked about for decades.  In the 1960s and 1970s, they were the principal fundamental justification in the case for higher silver prices.

Throughout the twentieth century, industrial use of silver increased to the point where the consumption of silver eventually exceeded new production. This is the start of the consumption/production gap to which people refer. The government then became a willing seller in order to keep the price down.  The specific purpose was to keep the price from rising above $1.29 per ounce. This is the level at which the amount of silver in a silver dollar (not Silver Eagles) is worth exactly $1.00.

The huge price gains for silver that occurred in the 1970s were largely attributable to years of price suppression prior to that. Those years of price suppression, though, were preceded by decades of price support.

Neither price suppression, nor support, are significant issues at this time. The primary imbalance in supply and demand was corrected in the 1970s. If it hadn't been, the silver price might be much higher than it is.

Expectations for a return to a 16-1 gold/silver ratio will go unfulfilled. The gold-to-silver ratio that existed one hundred fifty years ago was mostly the result of political influence and appeasement. There is no fundamental reason which justifies any particular ratio between gold and silver. (see Gold-Silver Ratio: Debunking The Myth)

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Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN'T, AND WHO'S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and  more

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