To Wear Or Not To Wear: That’s The Question With These Stupid Covid Masks

(For those eager to jump into the mask debate, scroll to the end of the article).

On June 8th the Dow Jones increased to a BEV (Bear's Eye View) -6.70%, and so far that has been the peak in the advance off its March 23rd’ BEV -37.09% bottom. Since early June (the last twenty-eight NYSE trading sessions) the Dow Jones has oscillated between its BEV -5% and -15% lines; so my commentary has changed little for the past month. This won’t last forever, and I believe whether the Dow Jones breaks above its BEV -5% or below its -15% lines will be an important development.

C:\Users\Owner\Documents\Financial Data Excel\Bear Market Race\Long Term Market Trends\Wk 661\Chart #1   DJ BEV 2009 to 2020 (2).gif

One advantage of maintaining a Bear’s Eye View (BEV) plot of a market series is it enables a study based on the one hundred-percent range a market series is confined in it, from:

  • 0% (BEV Zeros / All-Time Highs);

  • -100% (Total Wipeout in Market Valuation).

This allows a direct comparison between the Dow Jones when it traded daily below 100 in the early 20th century, with the Dow Jones in the 21st century as it now trades over 25,000.

In the tables below are comparisons between the Dow Jones from January 1900 to December 1999 (100 years) with the Dow Jones since its 09 March 2009 bottom.  

To keep it simple, here’s how the BEV daily closings are sorted in the table below:

  • 0% Row contains new all-time highs and nothing else.

  • -0.000001% Row contains daily closings just short of a new all-time high down to -4.99999% from one.

  • -5% Row contains daily closings from -5% down to -9.99999% from one.

  • And so on and so forth.

So within the red box are all the daily closings at new all-time highs and within 5% of making a new all-time high, or as I’ve put it before – daily closings in scoring position for a new all-time high.

Looking at the Percent of Total Days columns of these two tables, during the 20th Century (Left Table) the Dow Jones found itself at a new all-time high or “in scoring position” of one for 26.75% of its 32,596 daily closings. True, the 20th Century also includes the Great Depression, but the 20th Century enjoyed its fair share of bull markets too.

Compare this with the performance of the Dow Jones since its Sub-Prime Mortgage Bear Market Low of 09 March 2009 on the right side of the table. In the past eleven years the Dow Jones was either at a new all-time high, or in scoring position for 51.72% of its 2,863 daily closings even after working itself out from a huge 53% market bottom. This is twice the market performance the Dow Jones saw during the 20th century – Wow!

This propensity for the Dow Jones to be at a new all-time high, or in scoring position for over 50% of its daily closings since March 2009 has to explained, and looking at the “policy makers” “monetary policy” since 2009 in the chart below does so.  

If the Dow Jones since March 2013 has so frequently found itself in scoring position, it’s only because the FOMC has flooded the market with “liquidity”, floating the Dow Jones to ever higher valuations.

C:\Users\Owner\Documents\Financial Data Excel\Bear Market Race\Long Term Market Trends\Wk 661\Chart #2   Wk Cng Fed Hold 10Wk MA.gif

Even a 20% reduction in Dow Jones earnings since July 2019 hasn’t negatively impacted its valuation, not so far anyway.

C:\Users\Owner\Documents\Financial Data Excel\Bear Market Race\Long Term Market Trends\Wk 661\Chart #3   Dow Jones Earnings 1929 to 20.gif

It’s as I’ve said before, and you can be sure I’ll say it again in the weeks and months to come; the only thing keeping the stock market up is the aggressive manhandling of market valuations by the FOMC. So far things have been great for the bulls, but this is a game that can’t continue forever. One day Mr Bear will have his way, and claw market valuation back down to reality, and it won’t be pretty.

That things are changing beneath the surface might be seen in the BEV values for the major market indexes in the table below. For the second week the XAU (#19 gold mining) closed higher than the Nasdaq Banking index (#20). Not since March 2013 has this been so. So seeing the XAU’s BEV value now closer to a BEV Zero than is the Nasdaq Banking index is a big deal, positive indication that money has begun flowing into precious-metal assets.

Why are the Nasdaq Banks and NYSE Financial Index perennially underperforming the Nasdaq glamor indexes at the top of this table? Because the financial system is seriously dysfunctional, and has been since the top of the sub-prime mortgage bull market (2007).

How many trillions of dollars have been “injected” into the financial system since 2007, and changes in their accounting rules so the big banks didn’t have to declare bankruptcy during this or that crisis? Yet the NYSE Financial Index hasn’t seen a new all-time high since July 2007? Something is seriously wrong with our financial system.

C:\Users\Owner\Documents\Financial Data Excel\Bear Market Race\Long Term Market Trends\Wk 661\Chart #4   NYSE Financial Index.gif

As has always been the case since January 2000 (twenty years now) market declines are noted by rising trading volume, while market advances are noted by declining trading volume.

This is a reversal of the economic law of supply-and-demand. Before January 2000 it was the exact opposite, where market declines saw investors walk away from the market resulting in falling trading volume, and market advances saw investors come into the market resulting in rising trading volume.

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Dean Gilmore 1 year ago Member's comment

All this great content and all people can talk about is where to wear masks! That should have been the headline ;-)

Gary Anderson 1 year ago Contributor's comment

Yes, the article is quite interesting but the mask argument not so much!

Mark Lundeen 1 year ago Author's comment

I remember back last February when we saw videos of people in China just falling down on their face- dead - because of this virus, and stories about crematories in China running 24/7 as the piles of corpses just got higher. I was then as concerned, as you guys are now.

But it’s been six months since and we’ve seen nothing like that. Plus the death counts from Covid 19 are over counted. But one has to do a little research to discover that as CNN isn’t talking about that.

If a mass North American die off hasn’t happened yet I don’t think it’s going to happen at all. I got it figured out now: the corona virus has been weaponized for political purposes, and there are people are using this for all its worth in Washington DC and the media.

And those paper masks are stupid. I spent 20 years in the navy and served on six ships. So I’ve been in many chemical and biological war drills and a paper mask doesn’t do the job. It just doesn’t! That the mainstream FAKE NEWS tells their audience that it does tells me just how FAKE their NEWS is.

And should one have a proper mask, such as a US Navy Mark V mask, one thing no one should ever do is take one’s mask off if an agent such as muster-gas or a deadly virus is present in the ambient environment. Not for eating or drinking or even sleeping if you want to live!

Is it your understanding that like people, airborne viruses sleep at night, and are only active during the day time? You’re wrong! If the virus is active in our world, it’s also active in your bedroom 24 hours a day.

But I bet no one, not even Doctor Fauci sleeps with a mask on. Actually Dr Fauci is seen frequently without a face mask when speaking in public on TV. Fauci is an experienced epidemiologist who knows the rules; that one never takes off their masks if an airborne virus is in the ambient environment. Yet he does, frequently, which tells us what?

One thing the Fake News Outlets never tells people is the need to frequently change these paper masks or they’ll become little better than a bacteria breeding ground wrapped around one’s face, a dirty face diaper as some say. Yuck!

If someone insist on getting their news from Fake News Outlets and believing the propaganda these outlets send out, well go ahead and wear these stupid masks. I’m not going to stop you or demand politicians fine or imprison you for wearing a mask. Just don’t expect other people to do likewise if we choose not to for more cogent reasons than believing some guy on TV who isn’t wearing a mask says everyone else should.

Nuff Said

Mark J. Lundeen

Gary Anderson 1 year ago Contributor's comment

Where do you live, Mark? Those of us in the real world have to face the risk. The disease is still dangerous. Nobody knows who will get the more severe versions. It is a crap shoot.

Gary Anderson 1 year ago Contributor's comment

Disturbing article. Masks are crucial. This disease appears to get stronger in hot spots.Those hot spots could spread. We need to respect the disease.

Michele Grant 1 year ago Member's comment

I agree. Too many people view these mask policies as infringing on their rights. But they don't complain about seat belt laws. Both save lives, I don't see the difference.

Angry Old Lady 1 year ago Member's comment

Well there is one difference. A seat belt will only save you. A mask can not only save you, but may save everyone else! Wear a damn mask!

James Madison 1 year ago Member's comment

Mark, how can someone who is clearly as intelligent as you, dismiss all the medical and scientific data that shows wearing a mask not only saves lives, and prevents infection, but is critical to ending the pandemic?

DRM 1 year ago Member's comment

The Press with their scaremongering and the politicians with their lockdowns are responsible for the greatest economic disaster in the history of mankind. Wait and see! Total economic collapse will occur NLT the end of Q1-2021. That's when I plan to buy the house I will retire in.

Ayelet Wolf 1 year ago Member's comment

And the 650k dead is just scaremongering?? By the end of Q1 2021 there could be millions dead.

DRM 1 year ago Member's comment

At double the number of deaths, that's only 2/100 of 1 percent! That's 1.4 million versus the 56 million that die every year, year after year, that no one gives a second thought about. PUT THIS INTO PERSPECTIVE! It's way overhyped!!!

Ayelet Wolf 1 year ago Member's comment

You continue to always conflate all deaths. You need to differentiate between avoidable and non-avoidable deaths. You can't avoid cancer. You can avoid dying in a drunk driving accident by not being drunk and by wearing a seat belt. COVID-19 is completely avoidable.

Angry Old Lady 1 year ago Member's comment

So many said Covid-19 is no big deal, more people died for SARS, more people died from MERS. Now that's not true, and they say more die from the flu. Etc. Etc. What number has to die before you actually think it matters? 1 million? 2 million? So many have died already.

DRM 1 year ago Member's comment

At 5 million deaths, C-19 will equal 10% of all deaths, which is still only half of those who die every year from cancer.

Doug Morris 1 year ago Member's comment

You can't really do much to avoid cancer. If all it took was wearing a mask, I bet many would.

Dan Richards 1 year ago Member's comment

Every death is a tragedy. What @[DRM](user:130312), @[Joseph Cox](user:127658), and others have tried to explain is that, as horrific as the growing death toll from COVID-19 is, the death toll from shutting down the economy would be far worse. From starvation, malnutrition, homelessness, not getting access to proper health care, etc. Even violence and abuse. We world would be best serve while reopening. But we can be smart about it - social distance and wear a mask. Those who say not to... I have no idea what they are thinking or why.

Bill Johnson 1 year ago Member's comment

Even if you don't care about keeping yourself safe, please think of those around you - wear a mask.

Wendell Brown 1 year ago Member's comment

Great read.

Robert Capasso 1 year ago Member's comment

The title doesn't seem to have much to do with the actual article.

Barry Glassman 1 year ago Member's comment

@[Mark Lundeen](user:35163), how can you discount all the studies that show masks do work. And every city that mandates them has had a decrease in infections.

Flat Broke 1 year ago Member's comment

Masks can be effective, but you know what's far more effective? Yachts! The billionaires are all hiding out on their multi-million dollar boats while the rest of us are drowning in lockdowns, unemployment, and economic collapse. When this is over, they may be the only ones who are infected and even richer than before! God help us! 🙏