Perhaps the market is finally entering that 5th stage of disbelief.

To review the five stages, the market has surpassed the first three.

Stage One-Sellers experience exhaustion.

Stage Two-Investors who were long early on go to cash.

Stage Three-Bears begin to buy as optimism emerges.

Stage Four, Bears begin to call a top because they cannot believe the market’s strangeness. They think the Bulls are delusional.

But Stage Five, the Bears finally throw in the towel and buy!

And that’s not all.

Retail investors pile in. The economy begins to run hot. The market becomes crowded.

Everyone has something to crow about.

After a 10% correction in Semiconductors, SMH has moved up the last 4 trading days.

The S&P 500 had only a 3% correction from the early June highs. SPY still has a little bit more to reach the 245-peak.

The Dow barely corrected and today, made a new all-time high.

Blue Chips and Tech-the stuff dreams are made of.

Today I read, “Til when a crow becomes euphoric, the other crows investigate if there’s Dank Memes so they can visit in the future.” Flopus

For the market, the other crows have investigated those “Dank Memes” or overdone ideas, beliefs and patterns of behavior.

So, when will the crow become euphoric? And will that encourage the other crows to visit in the future?

Those familiar with the Modern Family know my belief that when the members trade in synch, the moves in the market become more sustainable and powerful.

Over a week ago, I began to see that the Transportation Sector was becoming not necessarily euphoric, but certainly an optimistic crow.

IYT is now starting to show signs of euphoria, ticking to new highs without any substantial infrastructure policy changes in the current administration.

The belief, delusional or not, supersedes the reality. Now, we look for the trickle effect.

The Russell 2000 or Granddad, trading in a channel range between 135 and 143 must clear over the channel top.

Biotechnology (IBB) which experienced its own little euphoric crowing, must hold 310 and take out 321.

Regional Banks (KRE) really needs to get above 56.50.

Let’s face it, Granny Retail is far from bragging like a clever crow. What would XRT have to do to add to euphoria?

At this point, not fail the lows and ideally, clear 41.00. To expect new highs seems truly delusional. Yet to expect a return to a Recovery Phase, appears good enough for crowing.

“I've gotta brag!
I think it's sweet
I have fingers and feet I can wiggle and wag.
I can climb trees and play tag with the breeze
In the meadows below
I've gotta crow!” Sung by Mary Martin (Peter Pan)

S&P 500 (SPY) 244-245 resistance to clear. 242 pivotal Under 240 not so good

Russell 2000 (IWM) I’d still consider the channel resistance at 142.90 as the number to watch. 140 pivotal. 137.50 support

Dow (DIA) New highs. 214 now pivotal support

Nasdaq (QQQ) 139.40 pivotal support. 142.29 resistance

KRE (Regional Banks) Must hold 54.75 clear 56.50 once and for all

SMH (Semiconductors) 83.50-84.00 pivotal support 86.02 resistance.

IYT (Transportation) New highs

IBB (Biotechnology) 312 now near support. Must clear 320

XRT (Retail) If can get back over 40.00 so much better. Then 41.00

IYR (Real Estate) 77 the ultimate support

GLD (Gold Trust) I’m not crazy about this reversal pattern. Like 115 to hold 116 pivotal and 117.50 a better place to clear

SLV (Silver) 15.00 good risk point to hold

GDX (Gold Miners) Didn’t confirm the reversal pattern

USO (US Oil Fund) 9.00 the ultimate support held but not until this clears 9.65 is it exciting

TAN (Solar Energy) Starting to look parabolic

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 124-125 resistance. 122.25 support

UUP (Dollar Bull) Closed under 24.80-so that’s a good pivotal point

FXI (China) Gapped to new yearly highs