The stock market enters Friday with a very modest gain on the week. However, pre-market looks weak and that gain will likely be wiped away. The bounce from the recent low has been impressive with back to back days where 90% of the volume took place in stocks that went up. But that is not a bell ringing buy signal in the short-term. It does indicate that the majority of the price damage has been done.

A good number of my meetings this week transitioned from the worries and misguided concerns over tariffs to the real reason, a growth scare. Last night both Fedex and Nike warned of slowing growth and economic concerns. I fully expect most companies that don’t exceed earnings expectations to blame some form of geopolitical risk or policy uncertainty, similar to how they hid behind the super strong dollar not too long ago.

I have spent some time formulating scenarios as I often do as corrections wrap up. In short, I have confidence in three which I will either do a video on this weekend or post a bunch of charts next week. Here they are in order of likelihood.

1 – Stocks have one more decline of 2-4% over the coming 1-4 weeks and then a march back to or through the old highs by September.

2 – The low from the other week is the bottom and the rally has started, but peaks out at 6000 or less on the S&P 500 before rolling over to a larger decline later this year and/or early next.

3 – The bounce fails soon and rolls over to immediate new lows with further to go.

You also may notice that our trading activity below has increased. That often occurs when markets are thrashing around and groping for a low. Some models buy and sell the same instruments many times before settling into a trend.

On Wednesday we bought XHB, QLD, SSO, EPOL, UWM, SGOV, USFR, more MQQQ, more SPHB and more DWAS. We sold ITB, QID, SPMO, EWS, some

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