The US Economy Slowed To Its Trend Rate Of Growth This Year. Capital Investment Has Weakened, But Still No Recession In Sight

According to the preliminary and the advance estimate, the US economy slowed to a 1.9% annual rate of growth in the third quarter, similar to the 2% pace recorded in the previous quarter.

There were positive contributions to Q3 growth from most spending sectors, though business investment (non-residential fixed investment and private inventories) reduced the growth in the total economy in the third quarter.

In nominal or current dollar terms, GDP expanded 3.5% in Q3 compared with 4.7% increase in the second quarter.

The PCE price changes, the residual between nominal and real growth, rose 1.5% in Q3 compared with 2.4% in the previous quarter

 Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.2% compared with an increase of 1.9% in the second quarter.

While it is clearly the case that no one can accurately predict the timing of the next recession or the next financial crisis, nonetheless the US economy’s slowing this year is not sending off the kind of nervous vibes that doomsayers might be looking for.

Consumer confidence is still strong, the job market is very healthy, and the housing sector is still expanding.

While the trade war with China is upsetting, the American economy is still expanding. Moreover, it is in the political interest of the Trump Administration to arrive at a trade deal before the 2020 Presidential election. 

Overview Of The US Economy

US Exports And Manufacturing Employment Have Weakened