The Squeeze

S&P 500 bulls went on to extend and defend gains following the fireworks reaction to CPI (as if inflation were banished by one 0% MoM reading), and bonds overall bought reasonably well into the idea. Treasuries though seem more reserved about the essence of the underlying bullish bets – Fed pivot isn‘t coming, and the central bank isn‘t backing off tightening. Odds are today‘s PPI shows quite some inflation fight ahead still (how sticky it would turn out, is underappreciated) – what an understatement in this decade of inflation, generally higher rates, and rising real assets.

To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of

Crude Oil

crude oil

Crude oil is catching a bid but still noticeably lagging behind oil stocks. Clearing $95 convincingly would technically change the outlook to bullish, but I remain cautious on account of stiff seasonality headwinds till late Oct and SPR drawdowns before the midterms.



Copper keeps showing strength, and the same goes for other base metals. Slowly grinding higher until the focus turns to the monetary policy.

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Cryptos are giving the short-term nod to the risk-on rally, no top immediately ahead yet.

More By This Author:

The Spike
The Reversal
Unclosed Gap

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