The SPX Pushed Higher, Despite Deep Setback
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The S&P 500 pushed for all-time highs twice over this past week, but thanks to weakness in the semiconductors, a large amount of defensive sectoral positioning kicked in that not even the financial sector (XLF) could overcome. Weaker incoming services PMI forced a modest increase in rate cut odds, sending the US dollar lower to its first level of support.
The extensive Saturday video dives into the latest signals in equities, what I expect to see in yields, how I expect the dollar will unfold next week with the FOMC meeting, how Chinese stocks may perform, and, of course, how precious metals and oil could move, with my previous calls working out well for various clients. Do review the packed video, there is a wealth of insights given throughout.
For now, however, let‘s shift attention to Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) as they tried to turn around this week. I will also discuss the poster child of multinationals, Microsoft (MSFT). So far, the news from financial reports has been great.
So, what kind of setback did S&P 500 see on Friday? The volume attests to only a temporary setback in the market. In the previously-mentioned video, I talk about the US dollar, The VWOB ETF, and Chinese equities' message when it comes to risk-taking. I also discuss the direction in which I see risk-taking being resolved, and what Bitcoin along with CleanSpark (CLSK), Mara Holdings (MARA), and CoinBase (COIN) are telling us now.
I also make the case for why the US dollar isn't going to go down in straight line from here. I cover the drivers of gold's ascent since the CPI flush, as well as which way the yellow metal could be pointing. I also review the bearish call in oil and why it's been working so well, as I circle back to the XLI ETF and what both of these assets may signal in regards to global growth in the months ahead.
Do you think the strong dollar has caught up sufficiently with the global economy and is starting to come back like a boomerang? I also talk about the importance of the euro as a risk-on signal when too many eyes were focused on BoJ, as investors feared a hawkish surprise early on Friday while I did not.
Now, here are a few charts that are discussed at length in the video.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full article contains 5 more of them along with commentaries.
Following the latest gold and oil calls of the week, here is a preview of the trading signals that clients have been receiving.
Gold, Silver and Miners
(Click on image to enlarge)
In spite of the meaningful intraday setback, I remain bullish on gold and gold miners. Once Chinese stocks move more to the upside, I will be bullish on silver, too. Gold is very unlikely to drop below Friday‘s open. I expect it will push into the area of the upper knot rejection from Friday, as the upswing's momentum appears to be alive and well.
Agrifoods, though, remain the brightest spot in commodities, and I am looking to see if these will push higher still. I have been talking about them on and off for weeks.
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