The Positive Trend In Jobless Claims Continues
For still another week, initial jobless claims continued their recent downtrend.
Initial claims declined -16,000 to 193,000, a 5 month low. The 4-week average also declined -8,750 to a new 4-month low of 207,000. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, declined -29,000 to a 2.5-month low of 1,347,000:
The downtrend of the past 2 months is almost certainly a positive side-effect of lower gas prices. According to GasBuddy, gas prices have increased in the past 10 days. If gas prices stabilize, I expect jobless claims to do so as well.
But this is good news and very much at odds with the idea that the US is currently in a recession.
More By This Author:
Interest Rates, The Yield Curve, And The Fed Chasing A Phantom (Lagging) MenaceHouse Price Indexes: More Evidence Of A Summer Peak
Gas And Oil Price Update: Good News And Bad News
Disclaimer: This blog contains opinions and observations. It is not professional advice in any way, shape or form and should not be construed that way. In other words, buyer beware.
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