Note: there was a good advance manufacturers’ new orders report for September this morning. I’m going to save discussing it until Friday, when I dissect the regional Fed reports, which are now all in through November.

Neither building permits and starts, nor new residential sales, were updated this morning, which means that only the NAR’s existing home sales report is current, as I noted last week. What did get updated yesterday was price information for repeat home sales, by both S&P Case Shiller, and the FHFA.

On a monthly basis, the Case Shiller National Index rose 0.2%, while the FHFA Index was unchanged (note: for some reason FRED still hasn’t updated the latest FHFA data):

(Click on image to enlarge)

The above graph shows that in the last 10 years, house prices have almost doubled, while both average hourly wages and median household income have only risen about 50%. The big breakout was during the 2021-22 post pandemic inflation. 

This year house price gains have completely stalled, and are still under their nominal peaks:

(Click on image to enlarge)

The same downdraft is apparent in the YoY% comparisons, going all the way back to the inceptions of the two respective series:

(Click on image to enlarge)

House price gains have only been this weak in the past 35 years in the vicinity of the two consumer recessions, and briefly during 2023. Although not updated by FRED, the FHFA index only increased 1.7% in the past 12 months.

As I always point out, prices follow sales, and this year we have seen a pronounced downturn in permits, starts, and units under construction, as well as new home sales. The market typically rebalances as inventory follows prices, and as I discussed last week in terms of the NAR’s existing home sales report, inventories continue to slowly grow on a YoY basis.

In sum, the housing market continues to be generally recessionary, and yesterday’s price reports were consistent with that scenario.

More By This Author:

Jobless Claims Continue Recent Trends, Do Not Suggest Any Worsening Of Unemployment
Real Retail Sales For September Decline Slightly, But Within Range Of Trend Noise
Producer Prices In September Told A Tale Of Goods Vs. Services