When the Federal Reserve really wants to make big changes, they push short-term interest rates up or down by three percentage points in a year. For the upcoming round of tightening, Fed policymakers expect to raise rates by just over one percentage point per year.

The actual plans are not clear, at least by the standards of clarity outside the Fed. However, the Fed’s Economic Projections offer a glimpse. In the chart below, each dot represents one member’s projection of the Fed Funds rate at year end (or longer run). We don’t know which dots from the 2015 area match the dots for 2016 and 2017, but by tracking the middle of each group, we can guess how strong the rate of gain is. I estimate an increase of just over one percent per year from year-end 2015 through year-end 2017.

The ultimate target for short-term interest rates is the other key issue. Somewhere between 3.5 and 3.75 looks to be their central tendency. Historically, Fed Funds exceeds inflation by about 1.5 percentage points, and the Fed’s recent statement puts inflation expectations at two percent. We can take the projections to mean that the Fed expects to get back to target inflation. Currently, though, inflation as the Fed likes to look at it (personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy) is running just 1.2 percent. Thus, some inflation acceleration is desired by the Fed.

The Fed’s actions are always data dependent. Stronger growth would lead them to tighten at a faster pace, slower growth at a slower pace. My previous expectation had been for half-throttle tightening: one and a half percentage points per year, with a similar long run target.

I would not make firm plans based on the Fed’s current expectations, but this is the most likely course. Unfortunately, there are many possible economic changes that would render these plans obsolete.