I am surprised at how many questions I received regarding whether the current stock market pullback was the 10%+ correction I called for this year. I need to do a better job articulating my thoughts here. The short answer is I don’t think so, but as we know, the markets don’t care what I think or want.

My thesis has always been for an initial decline in Q1 and then a rally which could be to new highs again before a deeper decline lasting 7-9 weeks when it’s warmer. That is all nice and tidy, but the markets rarely accommodate something that granular.

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The S&P 500 looks like a low is in place, for how long, we do not know. Some of our portfolios were fairly active this week, using strength to trim exposure and replanting that cash into some areas that were previously healthy and pulled back.

Nvidia reports earnings after the close so that will likely have an outsized impact on tomorrow’s action.

On Monday we bought QMFE, SSO, CROX and more INTC. We sold WT, PCY, QJUN, some PEP and some JNJ. On Tuesday we bought PCY, TQQQ, FDN and more XLF. We sold HSY, some KRE and some BRK.

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