The Bitcoin Pattern

The pattern following the parabolic 2011 top in silver is similar to what we currently see in Bitcoin. After a parabolic top, there is an initial crash, then a long sideways consolidation before a secondary collapse.

Silver post-bubble collapse - Notice how silver bounced off the $26.00 support several times. Each post-bubble rebound made a lower high as investors liquidated into strength. The same thing is happening in Bitcoin. Prices continue to bounce off the $5700 – $6000 level, and each rally is making a lower high. Consequently, we could see a high volume collapse in Bitcoin below $5700. I’d estimate price targets between $2000 – $3000. However, that would probably not be the final low.

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Bitcoin Weekly - The initial collapse stopped at $6000. Prices are now consolidating in a descending triangle. The pattern is making lower highs as investors liquidate into each rally. A breakdown below $5700 could trigger a secondary collapse to $2000 – $3000.

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GBTC - The breakdown level in the Bitcoin trust is $8.00. Below that, and we could see a secondary collapse to $3.00 – $4.00. However, prices could drop below $2.00 before arriving a final post-bubble low.

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Just food for thought. I don’t know if Bitcoin will break below $5700, but if it does – this is what I expect.

Disclosure: None.

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William K. 6 years ago Member's comment

The article was educational but it is still unclear to me as to how bitcoin has any actual value at all. My impression is that the whole bitcoin thing is a lot more like using counterfeit money. Only based on all participants accepting the same myth.