E The Bearish Forces In Metals And Miners May Return

The dollar is yet to form a swing low, but I think prices are close to bottoming…if they haven’t already. See the monthly dollar chart for and interesting correlation.

Oil sold off sharply after the OPEC decision. A perfect example of buying the rumor and selling the news.

It looks like stock finally broke higher from the cup with handle pattern. However, it was the tech sector and not energy stocks that fueled the breakout.

Precious metals and miners need to do a little more work before confirming tops. Miners are close to giving us what we need. However, I see a potential bullish pennant forming in the gold chart. We have to wait to see which way prices break. Nevertheless, the odds still favor gold dropping below the $1,214 low before claiming a lasting bottom.

-US DOLLAR MONTHLY- I find the Monthly chart of the US Dollar fascinating. The numbers in the chart (1-7) represent structural turning points, not Elliott Wave analysis. The current setup is practically identical to what we saw at the turn of the century. Markets rarely follow the same design, but I think it’s worth watching.

Major bottoms formed in 1992 and 2008. Prices advance sharply (1) off the lows followed by a retest (2). Three (3) broke out to new highs. The ABC correction into (4) was followed by a false breakout (5). The entire consolidation from (3) to (6) lasted 26-Months.

-US DOLLAR DAILY- We are still waiting on a close above 97.37 to from a swing low. If the Monthly structure plays out in a similar manner to 1999, we should see a powerful move through the upper trendline in June or July.

-GOLD- Gold may be forming a bullish pennant; these patterns usually break higher. If prices remain above $1,245, it’s possible we see a breakout above $1,265. If that occurs, prices should meet resistance between $1,275 and $1,285. Closing below $1,245 would abandon the pattern.

-SILVER- Still no sign of a top. Prices may be consolidating similar to gold. Breaking above the $17.31 high could send prices up to test the 200-day MA ($17.70). However, closing below the 10-day EMA ($16.94) would establish a breakdown.

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