Eviction protest in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Nathan Howard/Getty Images) GETTY IMAGES

Ten million renters are behind on their payments, according to the Census Bureau’s Housing Pulse Survey. The total back rent owed could be $70 billion, though nobody has a precise figure. John Kilpatrick has a good summary of the bank rent problem, presenting a variety of estimates. Renter assistance was included in the December 2020 stimulus bill to the extent of $25 billion, with another $30 billion proposed by President-elect Biden.

Being behind on rent is certainly a big problem for tenants when evictions resume. And not receiving rent is a big problem for landlords, especially those with mortgage payments due on the properties. But it’s not a big problem for the economy as a whole, despite the scary numbers.

Over ten percent of apartment renters failed to pay rent in December 2020, which sounds bad. But the prior December, before the pandemic and during a great job market, nearly eight percent didn’t pay rent. What’s different this time around: Bans on eviction have enabled people to continually not pay rent without having to move out. The arrears grow and grow.

For perspective, remember that the U.S. economy totals $21 trillion of GDP. If back rent totals $70 billion, that’s about one-third of one percent. So the back rent problem is only a little larger than a rounding error for the entire economy.

Small problems can sometimes snowball into big problems. The landlords who are not receiving rent have their own bills to pay, which frequently include mortgages and always include property taxes and maintenance. Property owners with much more debt than equity may default on their mortgages. The mortgage holder, which could be a bank, insurance company, or an investment fund, might have insufficient equity to survive the loss of regular payments. That would be unusual, however. Banks and insurance companies are generally well enough capitalized that they would survive, and investment funds often have no debt themselves. So the lack of rent is unlikely to trigger many failures in the capital markets. That’s not to say that lenders won’t be damaged, just that a chain reaction of bankruptcies is unlikely.

The chain of finance illustrates, however, the economic costs of rent deferral. Real people are hurt by it. Some may be landlords directly, while others have real estate investments in IRAs or 401(k) accounts, sometimes without even knowing it. Nonetheless, these losses won’t be enough to hurt the overall economy.

Evictions will eventually resume. Some of the people—probably most of them—won’t have the means to make back payments. Some may offer to resume payments if the back rent is forgiven. Because that back rent is uncollectable, some landlords will go for it. Others will accept partial payment of the arrears if the current rent is paid on time. Still other landlords will want to rid their properties of those tenants.

The evictees will have difficulty finding new landlords. Many apartment owners believe that an empty unit is better than a deadbeat tenant. That’s why credit checks are common. Although tough standards by landlords could trigger some increase in homelessness, most people will be able to make do, either by paying high rent to a landlord willing to accept some credit risk or by sharing an apartment with someone who has good credit.

Evictions will certainly trigger more problems, but again the magnitude will be small relative to the overall economy.

The back rent problem is real but not huge. Various individuals will have genuine difficulty, but the overall economy will roll along nearly as if there were no back rent problem at all.