The Average Effective Tariff Rate Thru October
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The actual — as opposed to announced — rate has only recently exceeded 12% (source: Paweł Skrzypczyński). Expect plenty of cost increases in 2026:
Source: Paweł Skrzypczyński, accessed Jan 9, 2026.
As noted by Jeff Frankel, lots of delay/TACO on the part of Trump meant that the effective tariff rate diverged a lot from the announced rate. Combined with stockpiling, the price effect has been somewhat delayed.
Big data suggests the respite in goods price inflation is disappearing.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Source: Harvard Pricing Lab Tariff Tracker, accessed January 9, 2026.
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