Thanksgiving seasonal trends certainly played out in picture perfect fashion. The stock market bottomed right on schedule and rallied all week as it was supposed to. Today is seasonally weak day and the pre-market suggested a lower open. However, because it is also the first day of December, I would use early weakness to buy as the market’s tailwind for the week remains in place. And that’s pretty much the theme of December. Buy weakness.

FYI, when December begins in an uptrend, the S&P 500 averages more than 1.5%. That lines up positively against other studies which show an up December when the market is up at this point in the year.

(Click on image to enlarge)

For all the talk of a late year 10% swoon, the S&P 500 is but two days away from the old highs. And remember, all those folks who panic sold during the tariff tantrum have been chasing stocks higher and higher and higher. And now, there is only have one month left to make up for their catastrophic mistakes.

Lest you think all is back to rainbows and unicorns, I still have some issues with the market. I do not think it just launches without looking back right here. But I remain convinced that Dow 50,000 is coming in Q1 2026.

Below is a chart I have shown many times since April. It is simply the S&P against the Russell 2000, big caps versus small ones. I love that the Russell has been outperforming over the past week as stocks have rallied. That’s a decent sign for Q1 2026. The Russell is also in a very seasonally positive time of year.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The banks which were left for dead not long ago are pressing up against the top of their range. What a shot in the arm for the stock market if the banks can squirt higher and lead.

(Click on image to enlarge)

On Wednesday we bought SDS and NJNK. We sold QLD. On Friday we bought QLD. We sold TLT.

More By This Author:

Bulls Fight Back But Landscape Unchanged
Nvidia Soars & Plunges As Bonds Outperform Bitcoin With A New Set Up
Hated Set Up Playing Out As Volatility Rises Into Nvidia