Technical Market Report For April 19, 2025
The good news is:
- New lows declined dramatically last week.
The Negatives
The first chart covers the last 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
NY NH with a value of 25, NY NH is about as low as it can get.
The next chart is similar to the 1st one except it shows the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with Nasdaq data.
OTC NH ditto.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).
NY HL ratio gained a bit last week, but remained in negative territory.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC HL ratio, in red, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.
OTC HL Ratio ditto.
The Positives
There was a huge decrease in the number of new lows last week.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new lows (OTC NL) in brown. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).
OTC NL There were 1109 new lows last Monday and 136 last Thursday, an encouraging improvement.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY NL, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY NL NYSE new lows declined to non threatening numbers last week.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 4th Friday of April during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2024 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2024. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
Seasonally for next week has been mixed and stronger during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle than other years. There are a lot of 0’s because the program counts Friday’s only when the market is open. Good Friday usually occurs in April and messes up the count. The 4th of July occasionally causes a problem. Christmas is so late in the month that it is not an issue.
Report for the week before the 4th Friday of April
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.
Daily returns from Monday through the 4th Friday.
OTC Presidential Year 1 (PY1)
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1965-1 0.35% 0.33% 0.37% 0.56% -0.31% 1.31%
1969-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1973-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1977-1 -0.90% -0.15% 0.71% 0.28% 0.44% 0.39%
1981-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Avg -0.28% 0.09% 0.54% 0.42% 0.07% 0.85%
1985-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1989-1 -0.14% -0.11% 0.16% 0.66% 0.32% 0.89%
1993-1 -1.90% 1.03% 0.86% 0.04% 0.45% 0.48%
1997-1 -1.52% 0.72% 1.19% 0.08% -1.53% -1.06%
2001-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Avg -1.19% 0.55% 0.74% 0.26% -0.25% 0.11%
2005-1 0.25% 1.02% -0.96% 2.54% -1.54% 1.31%
2009-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2013-1 0.86% 1.11% 0.01% 0.62% -0.33% 2.27%
2017-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2021-1 0.87% -0.34% -0.28% 0.22% -0.85% -0.38%
Avg 0.66% 0.59% -0.41% 1.13% -0.91% 1.07%
OTC summary for PY1 1965 - 2021
Avg -0.27% 0.45% 0.26% 0.63% -0.42% 0.65%
Win% 50% 63% 75% 100% 38% 75%
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2024
Avg 0.04% -0.22% -0.01% 0.22% -0.39% -0.37%
Win% 61% 45% 69% 66% 48% 58%
SPX PY1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1953-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1957-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1961-1 -2.08% 1.40% 0.38% -0.14% -0.23% -0.67%
1965-1 0.01% 0.17% -0.04% -0.08% 0.20% 0.26%
1969-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1973-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1977-1 -1.31% -0.04% 0.88% 0.24% 0.24% 0.01%
1981-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Avg -0.65% 0.06% 0.42% 0.08% 0.22% 0.14%
1985-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1989-1 -0.30% -0.63% 0.06% 0.86% 0.02% 0.02%
1993-1 -0.80% 1.03% 0.00% 0.20% 0.30% 0.73%
1997-1 -0.78% 1.87% -0.13% -0.32% -0.75% -0.10%
2001-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Avg -0.62% 0.76% -0.02% 0.25% -0.15% 0.21%
2005-1 0.29% 0.59% -1.33% 1.97% -0.68% 0.86%
2009-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2013-1 0.47% 1.04% 0.00% 0.47% -0.25% 1.73%
2017-1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2021-1 0.18% -0.02% -0.08% 0.68% -0.72% 0.03%
Avg 0.31% 0.54% -0.47% 1.04% -0.55% 0.87%
SPX summary for PY1 1953 - 2021
Avg -0.48% 0.60% -0.03% 0.43% -0.21% 0.32%
Win% 44% 67% 56% 67% 44% 78%
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2024
Avg 0.01% -0.04% -0.16% 0.08% -0.10% -0.21%
Win% 55% 51% 44% 45% 54% 51%
Conclusion
New lows declined significantly last week, but so did new highs.
The strongest sectors last week were Utilities (for the 4th week) and Energy (up from the bottom the week before) while the weakest were Technology and Electronics.
I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday, April 25, than they were on Thursday, April 17.
Last week the Russell 2000 was up while the other major indices were down; so I am calling last week's positive forecast a tie.
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