Supply, Not Sun, Powers Housing Gains

Below is an updated look at the most recent release of S&P/CoreLogic Case Shiller Home Price indices.  As of June 2025, the data shows national home prices up 1.89% year-over-year and 55.5% since February 2020, with the Composite 20 index just 0.15% below all-time highs. On a monthly basis, price changes were mixed across regions, with Chicago (+1.03%), Detroit (+0.58%), and Minneapolis (+0.67%) posting the strongest gains, while San Francisco (-1.05%), Dallas (-0.92%), and Seattle (-0.35%) recorded declines. Year-over-year growth is most pronounced in New York (+7.03%), Chicago (+6.09%), and Detroit (+4.32%), while markets like San Francisco (-1.98%), Tampa (-2.38%), and San Diego (-0.61%) are down versus last year.

Since the onset of COVID, most markets remain significantly higher, led by Miami (+77.6%), Charlotte (+71.9%), and Tampa (+67.5%). By contrast, San Francisco (+33.8%), Minneapolis (+38.4%), and Portland (+38.1%) have seen the smallest increases. Relative to all-time highs, only a handful of markets are meaningfully below peak levels, including San Francisco (-8.7%), Portland (-4.2%), and Phoenix (-3.7%), while many regions like New York, Chicago, Detroit, and Boston are right at record highs. From their 2023 lows, markets like New York (+23.3%), Chicago (+22.4%), and Detroit (+20.3%) have rebounded sharply, while cities such as Tampa (+3.9%) and Denver (+6.9%) have recovered more modestly.


Below are price charts for each of the major cities tracked by Case Shiller going back to the end of 1989.  Cities highlighted in green hit all-time highs in June.  In looking at the charts, you'll notice sideways action recently in previously hot markets in the sunbelt and out west, while supply-constrained areas like New York, Chicago, Boston, Cleveland, and Detroit continue to see home prices push higher and higher.


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Disclaimer: Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any ...

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