Sunday Reading

Stock World Weekly is the weekly newsletter from Phil's Stock World.

Don't bother looking at the economy to decide whether to buy or sell stocks. Joshua M Brown notes in Keep the Economists off the Trading Desk: “The reality is that there is no such positive correlation over various periods of time between economic data and stocks in any given country. And economic data in the short-term is every bit as unpredictable as stock market behavior, so basing a forecast for one on what you predict for the other is like picking out a sports jacket and slacks in the dark and hoping one is not navy while the other is black.... [T]he stock market is not the economy.”

Ehren Goossens of Bloomberg writes about the rise in solar companies on increasing demand. After a two year decline, solar companies are recovering faster than dot.coms after the collapse of their bubble. The article discusses how analysts' bullishness on solar companies. (Solar Rebound Beating Dot-Com Recovery as Demand Surges)

With Janet Yellen set to replace Ben Bernanke at the end of the year, a CNBC survey reports that 60 percent of respondents expect her to be more dovish than Bernanke. If true, this is a bullish signal as tapering of quantitative easing would be pushed back. (Yellen to be more dovish than ‘Helicopter Ben’: CNBC survey)

David Crane, discusses David Sirota’s mission to keep pension funds from investing in alternative assets. Although funds have posted notable gains from these types of assets, Sirota comments that, “Alternative investments are shrouded in secrecy, thus calling into question such vague claims of success.” David Sirota also cites retiree income being transferred to Wall Street. (Public Pension Funds Need to Show the Money)

Dominic Evans writes that Syria has destroyed all of its chemical weapons facilities. The deadline was November 1. The next step for Syria in complying with international mandates is to set up a detailed plan for destroying its existing chemical weapons by November 15. (Syria meets deadline to destroy chemical production facilities)

Debarati Roy of Bloomberg wrote about how gold and silver prices tumbled in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s announcement last week. (Gold Falls Most in Three Weeks, Silver Slumps on Fed Bets).

Stock World Weekly outlined a trade idea based on gold being a hedge against the inflation that may take hold in reponse to the Fed's ongoing quantitative easing program:

"Barrick Gold (ABX) is an interesting company. Last week, the company reported a 18.4 percent EPS beat. Deutsche Bank lowered its price target to $28 while JP Morgan raised its target to $19. Barrick announced a three billion dollar deal which would dilute shares while lowering debt. This sent shares down 7.1 percent on Friday. With huge gold reserves, the company’s performance is highly dependent on the price of the metal. 

"Phil prefaced a trade idea by stating that this is a long term inflation play and commented on the dilution: “I like selling stock to pay off debts. ABX is selling 188 million shares for $18.35, and it plans on using the $3.45 billion to pay off $2.6 billion in debt. This will give the company $850 million in working capital. ABX is doing what it always does as it prepares to buy more gold assets while the price is low and its competitors (who can't raise cash) are suffering. If you are a long-term investor, that's great. Short-term, we may see $15 again. 

You can sell the 2016 $15 put for $2.70, giving you a net $12.30 entry if forced to buy the stock for $15. That’s 37% below the current price.'”

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