COTTON

General Comments: Cotton closed slightly higher in cautious trading. Heavy rains are returning to the Southeast this week and Cotton could be hurt again as a new hurricane is approaching the Louisiana coast. Hurricane Delta moved through the Delta and Southeast a couple of weeks ago and did some damage to Cotton. Open bolls were reported in both regions and Cotton fiber was discolored or else blown out of the bolls due to the rain and winds. The discolored Cotton is getting a chance to recover now as it has turned dry and the fiber can be naturally bleached by the Sun. Demand should stay generally weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers with big storms possible as the hurricane comes onshore today. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have showers and snow. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 67.00 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 40,728 bales, from 38,888 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 737d0 and 7550 December. Support is at 7110, 7000, and 6920 December, with a resistance of 7240, 7270 and 7300 December.

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher in November and higher in the deferred months. Traders were rolling positions out of November and into January or later months. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The next tropical system will also miss the state as it moves into the central Gulf coast and then into Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama. The Coronavirus is still promoting the consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and foodservice demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Showers are falling in Brazil now to help production and tree condition. Mexican crop conditions are called good to very good with ample rains.

Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 114.00, 110.00, and 109.00 November, with resistance at 119.00, 121.00, and 126.00 November.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were higher in both markets. London was better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam and the country is getting too much rain now and flooding is being reported in the Central Highlands. The rains should continue for at least another week as there are two more tropical systems taking aim at the country. The demand from coffee shops and other foodservice operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to the recent extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.141 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 106.50 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers and rains with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 103.00, 100.00, and 98.00 December, and resistance is at 108.00, 109.00 and 111.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1350, 1360, and 1420 November. Support is at 1280, 1250, and 1230 November, and resistance is at 1340, 1370, and 1380 November.

SUGAR

General Comments: New York and London were a little higher in the nearby months, but lower in deferred months. Part of the action in London featured traders rolling out of December positions and into March. Rains are falling now in Brazil to improve Sugarcane's growing conditions. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but the exports have been hard to make. The Indian government has not yet announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no one knows how much to charge yet. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Rains are moving through the country now from Vietnam and the Pacific. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. Demand appears to be about average.

Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1510 and 1580 March. Support is at 1480, 1460, and 1420 March, and resistance is at 1520, 1550, and 1580 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 395.00, 390.00, and 388.00 December, and resistance is at 404.00, 409.00, and 412.00 December.

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Down 2.1% at 36.9M Tons in 1H of Oct, Unica Says
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed more cane in the first half of October compared with a year earlier, as processing slowed following previous dry weather that had allowed mills to pick up the pace in September, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 36.9 million metric tons of cane in the period, a decrease of 2.1% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 2.6 million tons of sugar, up 36.5%, and made 2.1 billion liters of ethanol, a decline of 10.4%.
The production mix for the first half of October was 45.4% sugar to 54.6% ethanol, compared with 34.6% sugar and 65.4% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
Unusually dry weather in the center-south in September helped boost sugar-cane processing last month, leaving less cane for processing in October and following months, Unica Technical Director Antonio de Padua Rodrigues said.
The region’s sugar mills can operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week during the harvest, and harvesting work can also be 24 hours a day, weather permitting, and the mills were able to operate 91% of the time in September, Unica said.
In the season from April 1 through Oct. 16, mills in the region crushed 538.1 million tons of cane, up 5.1% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 45.9% to 34.7 million tons, while ethanol output fell 7.5% to 25.6 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through Oct. 16 was 46.85% sugar to 53.15% ethanol, compared with 35.3% sugar and 64.7% ethanol in the same period a year ago.

COCOA

General Comments: New York and London were lower on demand concerns caused by the Coronavirus outbreak that seems to be surging again in the US and in the EU. The harvest for the next main crop is spreading through much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. The North American and European cocoa grinds were at least 4% lower than a year ago and the Asian cocoa grind was down 10% from last year. Ivory Coast is in the middle of the presidential campaign season and some violences expected.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions today and showers this weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 3.486 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2420, 2370, and 2300 December, with resistance at 2510, 2530, and 2580 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1650, and 1620 December, with resistance at 1720, 1730, and 1770 December.