Skyscrapers On Sutton Place

My neighborhood, Sutton Place, running along the East River to River House (on Beekman Place), from 59th Street southward to 52nd, is under threat from new very high-rise buildings (of as many as 100 floors). Henry Kissinger lives in River House. I live and work at the building furthest away from his, at the bridge end. (Our parents used to live a half block from each other at 187th Street in Washington Heights.)

The new monsters can be put up hither and yon in this community at the eastern end of Midtown Manhattan unless the city changes its zoning rules. Currently, nothing can stop the invading cloud-scrapers which started being built when new elevator technology allowed it, before the Global Financial crisis. The GFC led a to hiatus but the building boom resumed a couple of years ago.

Now a site cobbled together by an outfit called Bauhouse (from out of town but not from the Weimar Republic which the senior Kissingers and Oppenheims remembered so fondly) has begun tearing down old walk-up buildings around the corner from my building. The future high-rise site also gained from sale of “air rights”, a city scheme allowing the landlords or coop apartment owners in neighboring buildings to gain from letting in a monster. Many people accepted pricey buyouts for agreeing to vacate the early 20th century buildings.

Last month Bauhouse filed for bankruptcy, which sounds like good news, as the tear-down has only just begun on 58th Street. It owes money to another real estate firm, a local biggie named Kalikow. But the bankruptcy may be a sham. A current lawsuit will determine which side will get to peddle the site.

Meanwhile the Bauhouse threatens my tranquil life, my public transport, my water and sewage, my amenities, my parking spaces--and above all my property values. If the 58th street tear-down gets to lay new foundations in the Manhattan bedrock, originally planned for this summer, it will be exempt from new zoning rules which might prevent future 100-story intruders.

Meanwhile another 6 or 8 sites including an office block belonging to PR firm Ruder & Finn opposite the Kissingers' building are considered to be at risk of a buyout unless the law is changed quickly to preserve our neighborhood. I am not sure if PR firms consider the PR of their own brands.

Mayor Bill de Blasio, a leftish Democrat non-Sandernista, is believed to be in the pocket of real estate moguls donors, not of course including Donald Trump.

What may save the neighborhood is what is happening in Panama, China, and Russia. The source of much of the demand the mega-high-rise buildings sought to meet was from Russian oligarchs and corrupt Chinese officials hoping to put their money into a safe New York haven. The revelations of shenanigans in Panama have hit Putin's pals, and the crackdown on corruption under Xi Jinping may save my street. The real estate industry may soon find the demand for McMansions in the clouds has fallen. For the record my real estate risks are far more concentrated than my stock and bond portfolios.

We have news from Pakistan, India, Japan, Israel, Colombia, Brazil, Sri Lanka, and Britain.

*Teva reported Q1 results which beat Capital IQ consensus forecasts for both sales and EPS. The Israeli drug firm reported revenues of $4.81 bn, off 3.4% from Q1 2015 but ahead of consensus $4.4 bn. It had prepared the world for loss of some exclusivity in generics to treat Crohn's disease and other illnesses.

Having carefully controlled expenses boosting gross profit margins marginally, TEVA then produced adjusted EPS of $1.20/sh beating by 3 cents. Its EPS was up 19% year/year. Apart from care in spending where SG&A was kept level in percentage terms from last year, Teva also gained from its new franchise in central nervous system drugs, called specialty revenues, which rose 10% y/y to $2.2 bn, offsetting the 17% drop in generics lines which fell to $2.2 bn. Its R&D spending, a key for future success, rose 15% in Q1 to $375 mn, not counting stock options paid to researchers.

Exchange rate movements net of hedging cut revenues by $800 mn+ in Q1. Other adjustments from GAAP including impairment of its Venezuela assets; $100 mn of acquisition expenses; and minor impairment and restructuring charges. All in all TEVA is not fiddling its adjusted earnings.

For Q2 Teva forecasts adjusted earnings of $1.16/sh, down nearly 12% from last year, not including any boost from taking over Allergen, which will only close in late-June. It declared a 34 cents Q1 dividend. Teva rose 4.7% at the opening. Maxim Group reiterated its buy on Teva with a $70 target price.

*Also reporting for its full FY 2015-6 (to Mar. 31) was Rion, JP:6823. Chris Loew writes:

Sales were up 0.5% and taxes dropping under Abenomics boosted the bottom line so net income rose 11.7%. Rion makes sound-vibration measurement devices and equipment for monitoring the environment (like particle counters). It is speeding its expansion in Asia markets because mature Japan is near saturated. Its Japanese hearing aid business will gain from an older population and Rion is opening more stores for prescribing, fitting, and adjusting them. It is spending more on R&D not just on particle counters (a likely best seller in China) but also for cartilage conduction hearing aids. *It may be a bad omen.

*Bavarian Nordic (BVNKF) of Copenhagen, maker of injections, will report before the market on Friday the 13th. Its conference call is at 8 am EST, too early for me. Its ADR listing was deferred. Any volunteers?

*Nokia (NOK) reports tomorrow on its Q1. The consensus of analysts covering the stock is buy with a 29% higher price target of $7.29/sh.

*Marine Harvest reports Weds at 8 am CET. We are looking for a volunteer for the Norwegian firm MHG too.

Latin Loves

*At the 14th annual Latin American Infrastructure Forum to be held in Buenos Aires in June, there will be companies planning $40 bn in new tunnels, highways, waterworks, ports, renewable energy and electric distribution projects, airports, and sewage systems. Latin America is infrastructure-short and a major US export market for projects.

Chinese finance is less certain after failure of yet another state steel mill company. The impact of bankruptcy will hit China's banking sector which reportedly needs to raise as much as 1 trillion yuan, according to Sanford Bernstein & Co., a brokerage, in order to recapitalize with a debt-equity swap. The solution may involve a bad bank, a recapitalization, or a Beijing bailout round 2, which would hurt the Chinese economy more than the last one which took place during a high-growth period. The options are spelled out in the current Economist, not a fun read. Meanwhile there is trouble at Lending Club, a US variant on peer-to-peer lending which is causing so much suffering among Chinese retirees a mere 18 months after its splashing launch on Q. Now after the CEO resigned the analysts are downrating the stock.

*Vale fell 6.7% today at the opening on fear of Chinese steel glut and unwinding speculative trading in rebar (iron ore). China imposed a limit of 6% on daily down trading of steel and iron futures, so the Chinese market has further to fall. This may impact US investment in commodity producers like VALE. We are sticking with the company all the same because of its long-term future. Now the common is down 11.4% and the preferred down 10.2% at $4.24 and 3.44 respectively before recovering a bit.

*Other raw material firms are down too but not as dramatically, like Ecopetrol of Colombia and fellow-Brasileira Cosan. EC; CZZ.

*Orocobre, (OROCF) an Australian firm developing a lithium mine in Argentina, is a tangential Latina. Its sharock is up to $2.80 today, new 12-mo high, based on the Australian share. The tracking ticker is ORL-Toronto, up 5.54% to C$3.62. The US share is only up 5.23%. Sorry about the number of difference currencies which was the result of the unsponsored pink sheet ADR being withdrawn.

Reaction

*Between North Korean nuclear tests and Chinese steel glut, South Korea's Posco (PKX) was downrated by analysts there after Arcelor Mittal reported a 30% drop in Asian regional sales because of lower prices and volumes. Trading was briefly suspended in Seoul and the ADR is now down 7.2% to $4.11

*As usual, Banco Santander fell in Madrid on Latin worries too. SAN.

*BP plc was slashed because it is supposed to be one of the bidders (along with Sinopec and Exxon) in the future part privatization of Saudi Aramco. The UK gas price situation is in flux as reserves have been drawn down to produce electricity, at a time when it is more normal for reserves to rise to prepare for summer gasoline demand. The main reason seems to be lower imports from Norway along with the impact of Canadian wildfires.

The Whole Subcontinent

*Frida Ghitis is in Sri Lanka where she writes that many people at the Colombo stock market are barefoot. We asked her to look into buying John Keells, a Singalese conglomerate.

*Speculation that Pakistan will be added to the emerging markets roster is being fed by writers on www.seekingalpha.com who claim that this will boost local stocks by 20-30%. My own view is that until authorities stop the murders of those opposing religious extremism it will not get US F-16 fighters or an emerging market (rather than a frontier market) rating.

We bought the US-listed ETF after we earlier bought a precursor listed in Singapore led by a broker whom I know from college, who married a Pakistani. The GlobalX MSCI Pakistan ETF or PAK outperforms the Karachi index because of this kind of speculation. Its top holdings: MCB Bank, Habib Bank, Lucky Cement, Engro Corp, Oil & Gas Dev, Fauji Ferilitzer, Pakistan State Oil Co., Hub Power, United Bank, and National Bank of Pakistan. It is 32% invested in basic materials, 30% in financials, and 18% in energy, a typical emerging markets array. The ETF doesn't trade often because of limited Karachi liquidity. My own fave Pakistani industry is schmattes, rags, but the garment companies are not listed.

Bader Al Hussain writing on the site says there is an 80% chance Pakistan will be reclassified as an emerging market. Of course he doesn't set a time-limit. The law and order lack in PAK resulted in the murder of the best-known Radcliffe grad in Pakistan, Benazir (Pinky) Bhutto, who was running for president.

Abhimanyu Sisodia writes from India about Indian Q4 results (to March 31) and new ventures:

*While the top 350 Indian companies annual sales rose 5.6%, the fastest in 6 quarters, our Infosys revenues grew 9.1% and the whole sector grew revenues even faster, at 17.6%. INFY's Finacle won its 9th award as a Gartner leader, for its Edgeverve retail core bank software.

*Tata Motors (TTM) will partner with Bullitt Group to make Landrover-branded smartphones. Your editor would be skeptical but TTM's Jaguar-Landrover arm had its best month ever in April, with sales up 25% in Britain, up 10% in the EU and 11% in China. The US lags and sales actually fell. Separately, JLR will hire 1000 former British military retirees by 2020 to boost its UK personnel. The announcement came during the Florida Invictus games, to raise money for war veterans, founded by Prince Harry, younger brother of the heir to the British throne. (Abhimanyu's father is a retired Brigadier who worked in software after leaving the Indian Army.)

Disclosure: None.

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