Headline CPI shows the second highest increase since 2021M01.

Figure 1: CPI all urban (bold black), CPI-wage and clerical workers (pink), chained CPI (tan), HICP (green), PCE deflator (red), PCE-market based (light blue), all seasonally adjusted, in logs 2021M01=0. Chained CPI, HICP seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (log transform). Source: BLS, European Commission, BEA, via FRED, and author’s calculations.

Notice that despite the more frequent updating of weights in recent years’ worth of headline CPI, chained CPI (a research series) rises less. On the other hand, the CPI for wage and clerical workers rises slightly more than headline.

HICP rises less by March 2024 in part because it excludes owner occupied housing costs. It also covers rural consumers as well as urban.

Finally, the PCE (market based) increase is the smallest of all, less than even the conventional PCE.

The range of cumulative increase through March 2024 is 0.141 to 0.179 in log terms (i.e., 14% vs. 18%).

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