Among the many economic indicators updated this morning, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims came in stronger than expected, falling to 228K. That reversed the recent jump in claims observed throughout the late spring.

Looking at the non-seasonally adjusted data helps to explain the recent decline in the adjusted number. As shown below, barring the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, claims remain at one of the higher readings for the current week of the year in recent history. Typically, in late June and early July, seasonal headwinds cause a significant bump in claims. This year, that increase has been relatively modest.

Pivoting to continuing claims, the indicator had been on the decline since early April, but the first two weeks of July have seen a modest turn higher. At those levels, continuing claims remain in the middle of the range from the few years leading up to the pandemic.

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