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Some macro series. One observation does not make a trend – but still…

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Figure 1: Monthly GDP (black), private nonfarm payroll employment-ADP (blue), civilian employment w/smoothed population controls (light blue), aggregate hours (light green), consumption (tan), personal income ex-transfers (pink), real retail sales (purple), all in logs 2025M01=0. Real retail sales is 3 month centered moving average of retail sales, divided by chained CPI. Source: S&P Global, ADP-Stanford, BLS, BEA, Census, and author’s calculations.

Note that NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee places primary emphasis on employment and income.

Series that continue to rise include the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index. For a more complete tabulation of series, see this post.

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