Risk-On In The Making

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Photo by Nicholas Cappello on Unsplash

S&P 500 has good odds of having reached a local bottom, and performance around my yesterday‘s level of 3,752 would reveal the index direction for today. As for non-farm payrolls, I‘m looking for the number not to disappoint, and to have in the end a somewhat positive effect on stocks. The initial worry about a positive number implying the Fed gets more leevay in being hawkish, needs to wear off first.

What‘s remarkable about today, is that the no bond yields retreat (to the contrary, yields are up) is still sending the dollar down while precious metals and commodities are sharply higher. The lion‘s share of the explanation could be a fundamental one – Saudi Arabia has declared China to be its reliable partner, which isn‘t a stunner to anyone paying attention, including to the geographic destination of Saudi Arabia oil where Asian customers rule.

The earlier prediction of real assets benefiting more than stocks as the S&P 500 weighed down by the troubled tech (check Monday‘s extensive article for outperforming sectors), is playing out in plain sight – and cryptos are likely to do likewise well.

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action – today long) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.


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Hawkish Conference
FOMC Reversal?
Dips To Buy

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