Advance retail sales from Commerce Department, chart by Mish

Advance Retail Sales Details

• Advance Retail and Food Services estimates for July 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $696.4 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.2 percent (±0.7 percent) above July 2022.
• Total sales for the May 2023 through July 2023 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago.
• The May 2023 to June 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent).
• Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2023, and up 2.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year.
• Nonstore retailers were up 10.3 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 11.9 percent (±2.3 percent) from July 2022.

The key phrase is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.” It’s real (inflation-adjusted) sales that factor into GDP. This report, except for autos, was also on the hot side.

Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month Real vs Nominal

Advance retail sales from Commerce Department, inflation adjustment and chart by Mish

On a CPI-adjusted basis, advance retail sales have been strong two out of the last three months, rising 0.6 percent, 0.1 percent, and 0.5 percent in May, June, and July respectively.

Compared to a year ago over even two years ago, real sales have stagnated.

Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales

Advance retail sales from Commerce Department, inflation adjustment and chart by Mish

Real retail sales peaked in April of 2022 and are down 2.3 percent since then.

Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Percent Change From Year Ago

Adjusted for inflation, advance retail sales are down for the sixth straight month compared to a year ago.

But it is the month-over-month numbers the Fed will be watching. This was a hot report except for autos. But who can afford a car anyway?

The average full-size care was over $48,000 in June according to Clark.Com. Nerd Wallet reports the average monthly car payment is $725 for new cars and $516 for used.

If you are not committing an extra $700 a month, I guess you can splurge elsewhere, until you need a car repair.

UAW Declares War on Corporations, Seeks 46 Percent Wage Hike, September Strike Looms

Meanwhile, please note the UAW Declares War on Corporations, Seeks 46 Percent Wage Hike, September Strike Looms

UAW Demands

• 32-hour workweek
• 46 percent pay raise over 4 years
• Right to strike over plant closures
• Increased retiree benefits
• Defined pension plan for all workers
• Cost of living adjustments

Those demands will never fly, but a militant union is increasingly agitated to strike.

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