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Total retail sales came in at $734.9 billion in March, a gain of +1.4% (vs +1.3% expected). January and February were revised higher by a combined $3.4 billion.

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At +1.4%, its the biggest monthly gain since January 2023. Total retail sales are up 4.6% year over year, the highest growth rate since December 2023.

11 of 13 retail categories gained for the month, while gasoline stations (-2.5%) and furniture (-0.7%) where the lone decliners. The biggest gains were in the motor vehicle & parts dealers (+5.3%) category, leading to believe that tariff related buying may have a lot to do with the strength.

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Although core retail sales (retail sales ex autos) came in at $590.9 billion, a gain of +0.5% (vs. +0.4% expected).

We probably won’t know how much of this strength is related to buying ahead of the tariffs until after the fact. It certainly appears that it played a significant factor, but it was still a welcome sign to see a consumer related data point come in better than expectations.

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Real retail sales (retail sales adjusted for inflation) remains stuck in no mans land. Currently $229.9 billion, it remains 1.6% below the April 2021 all time highs.

Translation: All of the record retail sales over the last 4 years is 100% attributed to rising prices, not an increase in demand.

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