Reminder: Using the “Two-Consecutive-Quarter Rule” there is no 2001 recession. At least as of now. But at end 2003, there was. But not as of January 2002.

Figure 1: GDP as of 1/30/2002 (blue), as of 12/10/2003 (tan), as of 10/27/2022 (green), in Ch.2012$ in logs, 2001Q1=0. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA via ALFRED, BEA, NBER, and author’s calculations. 

Note that ECRI dates and NBER dates are the same for this peak-to-trough episode.

Based on GDP, Jim Hamilton notes that by the Chauvet-Hamilton measure, as of 2022Q2, the US economy was not in recession. One commentator slavishly hews to the 2 quarter rule, based on the current statistics.

See also [1], [2].

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