Reflating

S&P 500 bulls came back, 3,910 support held, and the dollar was unable to hold on to intraday gains really. In the European morning, I doubted the bearish shift materializing later today as the Fed speakers‘ risk-off momentum did wear off already yesterday. Precious metals are indeed leading the charge among real assets, and I‘m still not writing off crude oil.

S&P 500 looks likely to conquer the low 4,010s today, which would flip the daily chart distinctly bullish again. Paying off not to panic – the Fed‘s ability to tighten in the face of a slowing economy is correctly being doubted – 4.50% Fed funds rate year-end is still a great tightening achievement but stocks are willing to run higher in its face.

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
 

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Fake breakdown on low volume attracting no sellers – that would be the most likely conclusion after today‘s closing bell.
 

Credit Markets

HYG, LQD and TLT

HYG posture is bound to improve further today – the downswing was bought, and the white body candle awaits today while TLT more or less erases yesterday‘s decline.
 

Gold, Silver, and Miners

gold, silver and miners

We haven‘t seen an important precious metals top – the sector will likely hold on to and extend today‘s premarket gains. Silver is still recharging batteries, but will recapture $22 with ease.
 

Crude Oil

crude oil

The oil downswing appears overdone, but unless $82.50 is recaptured and WTIC starts outperforming especially base metals, the short-term outlook is tricky. Oil stocks not joining in the slide is thought positive – so, I‘m not turning bearish.


More By This Author:

On The Defensive
Back To Risk-On
Tight Range Grind

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