S&P 500 refused the intraday decline – value held up very finely. The 2-year yield is on guard, but stocks are refusing to budge. Not even the sharp daily dollar upswing had much of an effect – what it did to real assets, is being (gradually) reversed, and in the case of oil, the unsubstantiated rumor was swiftly dealt with already yesterday. So much for oil supply, after $80, there comes $82.50. The same move is going to be mirrored in silver and copper, confirmed then by gold and miners.

Today‘s key level to overcome and not see jeopardized is 3,965 – the logical clues serving so well in determining the Nov CPI buying spree, are in place once again, favoring a bullish resolution beyond the sensitivity shown to the rising dollar yesterday and declining dollar today. Stocks look willing to run (4,010s getting insights)and this would be the ideal confirmation. Fundamentally for the 24+ hours ahead, odds are high that the Fed and manufacturing PPI would resolve in the hours ahead to the upside as well.

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
 

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

Nasdaq is nicely primed to take the cue, and help S&P 500 higher in the coming microrotation caused by a further retreat in long-term yields. I still say that 4,000 are on the chopping block this week.
 

Credit Markets

Daily pause in bonds that doesn‘t look like getting resolved to the upside and dragging risk assets along. Contracting volume equals a bigger move is readied, and odds are it would lead higher.

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