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To date, 164 of the 192 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q3 2025, representing 85% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 66% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 30% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q3 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 7.3%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 192 companies in this index is 5.3% for Q3 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 68% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and the remaining 31% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

Retail sales

September retail sales underperformed market expectations, with headline growth of 0.2% month-over-month, marking a pause after a strong run in prior months. The ex-autos category met forecasts at 0.3% m/m, but the biggest disappointment came from the retail control group, which unexpectedly contracted -0.1% m/m versus expectations for a 0.3% gain. August figures for ex-autos and control were revised slightly lower to 0.6% m/m.On a year-over-year basis, total retail sales rose 4.3%, while ex-autos advanced 4.1%.

Category performance was mixed. Sporting goods, hobby, musical instruments and book stores posted the steepest decline at -2.5% m/m, followed by clothing and accessories at -0.7% m/m, down from +1.0% m/m in August’s back-to-school boost. Motor vehicles and parts dealers saw a modest contraction of -0.3% m/m. On the upside, miscellaneous store retailers surged 2.9% m/m, and gasoline stations climbed 2.0% m/m.

This week in retail

In Q3 2025, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. reported 6.8% revenue growth of $1.29 billion, beating expectations on both earnings and same-store sales (SSS). This marks the teen retailer’s 12^th  consecutive quarter of growth, with overall comparable sales rising 3.0%. Growth was driven by Hollister, which surged 15% SSS, offsetting the -7.0% comp decline in the Abercrombie brand. Operating margin was 12%, pressured by tariffs and higher marketing spend. Still, management raised its full-year outlook, and are now expecting net sales growth of 6%-7% and EPS between $10.20 and $10.50, signaling confidence heading into the holiday season.

Meanwhile, Dick’s Sporting Goods reported mixed Q3 results, missing earnings consensus estimates but beating on revenue. Core business comps rose 5.7%, supported by higher ticket and transaction volumes. Management raised full-year guidance for the core business, expecting 3.5%-4% comparable sales growth and EPS of $14.25-$14.55. The company is restructuring its Foot Locker segment, closing underperforming stores and clearing inventory, which will result in charges but aims to position for long-term growth.

Kohl’s surprised to the upside in Q3, reporting adjusted EPS of $0.10, well above expectations for a $0.20 loss, and revenue of $3.41 billion, beating estimates despite a 2.85% year-over-year decline. Comparable sales fell 1.7%, but gross margin improved by 51 basis points to 39.6%, reflecting better inventory management and pricing discipline. Kohl’s raised its full-year EPS outlook to $1.25-$1.45, well above consensus of $0.71, while projecting net sales to decline 3.5%-4%. Shares surged more than 20% on strong results and guidance.

Best Buy also exceeded expectations, reporting Q3 revenue of $9.67 billion, up from $9.45 billion last year, and adjusted EPS of $1.40, beating the $1.31 forecast. Comparable sales grew 2.7%, with U.S. comps up 2.4% and online sales up 3.5%, reversing last year’s declines. Management raised full-year guidance, now expecting revenue of $41.65-$41.95 billion and EPS of $6.25-$6.35. Shares rose about 3% premarket as investors welcomed the upbeat outlook heading into the holiday season.

Here are the latest Q3 2025 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q3 2025

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

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