Image Source: Mike Mozart, Flickr

To date, 155 of the 192 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q3 2025, representing 81% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 65% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 31% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q3 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 7.2%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 192 companies in this index is 5.2% for Q3 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 67% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 33% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

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Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This Week in Retail

The majority of the U.S. population lives within 10 miles of a Walmart store. This proximity, combined with its vast scale and efficient supply chain, enables Walmart to deliver affordability through its everyday low-price strategy, a value proposition that resonates strongly in today’s economic environment.

In Q3 2025, Walmart reported 5.8% revenue growth, beating expectations on both earnings and same-store sales. E-commerce was a standout, surging 27%, driven by a remarkable 70% increase in store-fulfilled pickup, delivery, and marketplace orders. This underscores the strength of Walmart’s hybrid model, leveraging physical stores as fulfillment hubs to enhance convenience and speed. “We’re gaining market share, improving delivery speed, and managing inventory well,” said CEO Doug McMillon. “We’re well positioned for a strong finish to the year and beyond that.” (Source: Walmart Q3 2026 Earnings Release)

The retailer also raised its full-year outlook, underscoring confidence in sustained momentum as it heads into the critical holiday season. Walmart is capturing market share across income segments as consumers seek value amid persistent inflationary pressures. Its position as a one-stop shop for budget-conscious shoppers reinforces its competitive edge, enabling it to outpace rivals like Target, which has faced ongoing challenges.

Moreover, Walmart’s growing e-commerce capabilities and store-based fulfillment model position it as a formidable competitor to Amazon, blending cost efficiency with omnichannel convenience.

Here are the latest Q3 2025 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q3 2025

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Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

Looking ahead, analysts polled by LSEG remain bullish on the Q3 performance of several retailers, including Five Below, Signet, and Dillard’s. For Five Below, the current consensus for Q3 2025 EPS stands at $0.24. However, a five-star rated analyst with a strong track record has issued a Bold Estimate of $0.33, well above consensus. Additionally, the StarMine Predicted Surprise exceeds 2%, signaling a high probability that Five Below will deliver an earnings beat and a positive surprise

The StarMine SmartEstimate is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate differs from the consensus (I/B/E/S mean) by more than 2%, the company is likely to post subsequent earnings surprises directionally correct 70% of the time. This percentage difference is referred to as the Predicted Surprise (PS%) (Exhibit 3).

Exhibit 3: Five Below StarMine SmartEstimate and Predicted Surprise %: Q3 2025

Source: LSEG Workspace.

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